The Sawford formula
The Sawford formula states that if two or more of the unemployment, inflation and interest rates rise over a full, three-year electoral cycle, the government will lose. Conversely, if two or more fall the government will be returned.
According to Mumble (9 July 2006), this formula has picked every Federal election since 1961 except 1974 and 1980. Although, Charles Richardson wrote to me and and said, “why would anyone think 1974 was an election after ‘a full, three-year electoral cycle’ - it was less than 18 months.” He has a point.
In my view, the Sawford formula is a shorthand way of saying that governments tend to be returned to power if they manage the economy well. This understanding underpins a number of economic models for predicting election outcomes. Of course, the Sawford formula is not a hard and fast rule; it is just a guide.
