Electoral Pendulum

The 2004 election saw a House of 150 seats with 87 Coalition members, 60 Labor members, and three independents. Immediately following the 2004 election, to win government outright — ie. to have 76 seats in a house of 150 — Labor needed to win 16 additional seats. The mathematics is simple: 60 + 16 = 76. If Labor only wins 15 seats, it would still form a minority government, but it would need the support of one of the two independents.

There has been one by-election since 2004, in the seat of Werriwa. That by-election saw Chris Hayes (Labor) replace Mark Latham (Labor). It did not affect the number of seats Labor needs to win.

The have also been redistributions in New South Wales, Queensland and the Australian Capital Territory since the 2004 election. The redistributions saw no change to the number of seats in the House (150). One Coalition seat in New South Wales (Gwydir) was abolished and a notionally Coalition seat (Flynn) was created in Queensland. This does not affect the number of seats Labor needs to win.

The redistributions also saw two seats notionally change sides. Parramatta, currently held by Labor, became a notionally Liberal seat. And, Macquarie, currently held by the Liberals, became a notionally Labor seat. Because these notional moves cancel each other out, they do not affect the number of seats Labor needs to win.

In the seat of Calare, independent member Peter Andren has announced he will not stand for election in Calare in 2007. This changes Calare from an independent seat to a notionally Coalition seat. As a consequence, it does not change the number of seats Labor currently holds, nor the number of seats Labor needs to win government. However, it increases by one the number of seats the Coalition can lose before it loses government in its own right from 12 to 13.

As a result of the above, the Coalition notionally holds 88 seats. Labor notionally holds 60 seats. and the independents hold 2. Nothing has changed for Labor. Sixteen seats would give it outright government. Fifteen seats would give Labor minority government.

The Pendulum

The following table is a linear presentation of the electoral pendulum. The seats are ranked from the safest Labor seat to the safest Coalition seat. The TPP vote shares have been adjusted to take account of redistributions in ACT, NSW and Qld using this report from the Australian Electoral Commission. The notional state of the current Parliament is underlined with a thick line: 88 seats for the Coalition and 60 seats for Labor. If Labor wins the next 15 seats it would have 75 and the Coalition 73.

With the hypothetical uniform swing, using the election calculator, if Labor won 51.4 per cent of the tw- party preferred (TPP) vote share it would win 75 seats. The last seat to fall under that swing would be Bennelong.

 

Division State Adjusted 2004 ALP TPP in seat (%) Uniform swing to Labor Labor seats Coalition seats Labor seats gained
If Labor wins no seats in 2007, the result would be –> 0 148 −60
Batman Vic 71.32 −21.32 1 147 −59
Grayndler NSW 71.19 −21.19 2 146 −58
Melbourne Vic 71.14 −21.14 3 145 −57
Sydney NSW 67.38 −17.38 4 144 −56
Wills Vic 66.90 −16.90 5 143 −55
Blaxland NSW 65.23 −15.23 6 142 −54
Gellibrand Vic 64.95 −14.95 7 141 −53
Gorton Vic 64.90 −14.90 8 140 −52
Scullin Vic 64.79 −14.79 9 139 −51
Watson NSW 64.56 −14.56 10 138 −50
Throsby NSW 63.82 −13.82 11 137 −49
Fowler NSW 63.32 −13.32 12 136 −48
Fraser ACT 63.32 −13.32 13 135 −47
Denison Tas 63.29 −13.29 14 134 −46
Port Adelaide SA 62.91 −12.91 15 133 −45
Reid NSW 62.08 −12.08 16 132 −44
Chifley NSW 61.97 −11.97 17 131 −43
Cunningham NSW 61.62 −11.62 18 130 −42
Hunter NSW 61.09 −11.09 19 129 −41
Canberra ACT 59.91 −9.91 20 128 −40
Maribyrnong Vic 59.47 −9.47 21 127 −39
Shortland NSW 59.24 −9.24 22 126 −38
Newcastle NSW 59.09 −9.09 23 125 −37
Lalor Vic 58.79 −8.79 24 124 −36
Kingsford Smith NSW 58.73 −8.73 25 123 −35
Griffith Qld 58.48 −8.48 26 122 −34
Charlton NSW 58.40 −8.40 27 121 −33
Calwell Vic 58.19 −8.19 28 120 −32
Fremantle WA 57.76 −7.76 29 119 −31
Lingiari NT 57.66 −7.66 30 118 −30
Franklin Tas 57.59 −7.59 31 117 −29
Barton NSW 57.57 −7.57 32 116 −28
Hotham Vic 57.40 −7.40 33 115 −27
Oxley Qld 57.12 −7.12 34 114 −26
Werriwa NSW 56.94 −6.94 35 113 −25
Perth WA 56.73 −6.73 36 112 −24
Prospect NSW 56.40 −6.40 37 111 −23
Corio Vic 55.64 −5.64 38 110 −22
Lilley Qld 55.40 −5.40 39 109 −21
Brand WA 54.65 −4.65 40 108 −20
Jagajaga Vic 54.40 −4.40 41 107 −19
Capricornia Qld 54.01 −4.01 42 106 −18
Brisbane Qld 53.94 −3.94 43 105 −17
Melbourne Ports Vic 53.74 −3.74 44 104 −16
Lyons Tas 53.68 −3.68 45 103 −15
Bruce Vic 53.48 −3.48 46 102 −14
Banks NSW 53.22 −3.22 47 101 −13
Lowe NSW 53.03 −3.03 48 100 −12
Rankin Qld 52.98 −2.98 49 99 −11
Chisholm Vic 52.65 −2.65 50 98 −10
Ballarat Vic 52.23 −2.23 51 97 −9
Holt Vic 51.51 −1.51 52 96 −8
Isaacs Vic 51.48 −1.48 53 95 −7
Richmond NSW 51.44 −1.44 54 94 −6
Adelaide SA 51.33 −1.33 55 93 −5
Bendigo Vic 50.96 −0.96 56 92 −4
Cowan WA 50.78 −0.78 57 91 −3
Macquarie # NSW 50.47 −0.47 58 90 −2
Swan WA 50.08 −0.08 59 89 −1
Hindmarsh SA 50.06 0.00 60 88 0
Kingston SA 49.93 0.07 61 87 1
Bonner Qld 49.49 0.51 62 86 2
Wakefield SA 49.33 0.67 63 85 3
Parramatta # NSW 49.17 0.83 64 84 4
Makin SA 49.07 0.93 65 83 5
Braddon Tas 48.87 1.13 66 82 6
Hasluck WA 48.18 1.82 67 81 7
Stirling WA 47.96 2.04 68 80 8
Wentworth NSW 47.49 2.51 69 79 9
Bass Tas 47.37 2.63 70 78 10
Solomon NT 47.19 2.81 71 77 11
Moreton Qld 47.17 2.83 72 76 12
Lindsay NSW 47.08 2.92 73 75 13
Eden-Monaro NSW 46.73 3.27 74 74 14
Bennelong NSW 45.87 4.13 75 73 15
Dobell NSW 45.16 4.84 76 72 16
Deakin Vic 45.03 4.97 77 71 17
McMillan Vic 45.01 4.99 78 70 18
Corangamite Vic 44.68 5.32 79 69 19
Boothby SA 44.63 5.37 80 68 20
Page NSW 44.54 5.46 81 67 21
Blair Qld 44.31 5.69 82 66 22
La Trobe Vic 44.17 5.83 83 65 23
Herbert Qld 43.76 6.24 84 64 24
Kalgoorlie WA 43.70 6.30 85 63 25
Paterson NSW 43.68 6.32 86 62 26
McEwen Vic 43.58 6.42 87 61 27
Cowper NSW 43.25 6.75 88 60 28
Longman Qld 43.25 6.75 89 59 29
Sturt SA 43.20 6.80 90 58 30
Robertson NSW 43.13 6.87 91 57 31
Petrie Qld 42.55 7.45 92 56 32
Gippsland Vic 42.30 7.70 93 55 33
Flynn Qld 42.28 7.72 94 54 34
Hinkler Qld 41.66 8.34 95 53 35
Hughes NSW 41.45 8.55 96 52 36
Higgins Vic 41.24 8.76 97 51 37
Kennedy* Qld 41.14 8.86 98 51 38
Dickson Qld 41.11 8.89 99 50 39
Bowman Qld 41.10 8.90 100 49 40
Dunkley Vic 40.62 9.38 101 48 41
Gilmore NSW 40.59 9.41 102 47 42
Canning WA 40.46 9.54 103 46 43
Kooyong Vic 40.42 9.58 104 45 44
Dawson Qld 40.01 9.99 105 44 45
Goldstein Vic 39.97 10.03 106 43 46
North Sydney NSW 39.96 10.04 107 42 47
Leichhardt Qld 39.74 10.26 108 41 48
Ryan Qld 39.58 10.42 109 40 49
Forrest WA 39.55 10.45 110 39 50
Menzies Vic 39.33 10.67 111 38 51
Moore WA 39.17 10.83 112 37 52
Fisher Qld 39.02 10.98 113 36 53
Flinders Vic 38.89 11.11 114 35 54
Macarthur NSW 38.85 11.15 115 34 55
Warringah NSW 38.71 11.29 116 33 56
Casey Vic 38.65 11.35 117 32 57
Greenway NSW 38.65 11.35 118 31 58
Calare* NSW 38.59 11.41 119 30 59
Forde Qld 38.48 11.52 120 29 60
Tangney WA 38.25 11.75 121 28 61
Wide Bay Qld 37.79 12.21 122 27 62
Wannon Vic 37.63 12.37 123 26 63
Fairfax Qld 37.59 12.41 124 25 64
Hume NSW 37.16 12.84 125 24 65
Pearce WA 37.06 12.94 126 23 66
Aston Vic 36.85 13.15 127 22 67
Cook NSW 36.72 13.28 128 21 68
Lyne NSW 36.59 13.41 129 20 69
Mayo* SA 36.41 13.59 130 19 70
New England* NSW 36.41 13.59 131 19 71
Berowra NSW 36.18 13.82 132 18 72
Grey SA 36.18 13.82 133 17 73
McPherson Qld 36.06 13.94 134 16 74
Curtin WA 35.38 14.62 135 15 75
Mackellar NSW 34.54 15.46 136 14 76
Fadden Qld 34.10 15.90 137 13 77
Indi Vic 33.71 16.29 138 12 78
Farrer NSW 33.37 16.63 139 11 79
Bradfield NSW 32.45 17.55 140 10 80
Parkes NSW 32.44 17.56 141 9 81
Groom Qld 31.19 18.81 142 8 82
Moncrieff Qld 30.47 19.53 143 7 83
Barker SA 30.12 19.88 144 6 84
O’Connor WA 29.61 20.39 145 5 85
Mitchell NSW 29.32 20.68 146 4 86
Riverina NSW 29.15 20.85 147 3 87
Maranoa Qld 28.95 21.05 148 2 88
Murray Vic 25.92 24.08 149 1 89
Mallee Vic 25.25 24.75 150 0 90

Uniform swing to Labor and seats gained

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