Oz Politics Blog

Yesterday was the 19th full day in the election campaign. There are twenty one days to until the election tally on the eveneing of 24 November 2007.

Labor made statements on the Northern Rivers growth corridor, health and education support for Melbourne’s western suburbs, Indigenous customary law and water desalination.

There were no new policy statements on the Coalition website.

Candidates: The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) released the list of candidates for the House of Representatives and the Senate. It was amusing to see Australia’s most prolific unsuccessful candidate — Marcus Aussie-Stone — up for election in Joe Hockey’s seat of North Sydney.

Political parties must lodge their above-the-line party voting tickets with the AEC by noon today if they wish to have a box above the line on the ballot paper. Once these tickets are published, I am sure there will be a number of Senate calculators on the net.

Morgan released poll results for last weekend. The headline prediction was 42.5 per cent for the Coalition and 57.5 per cent for Labor.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Electorate polls: The Herald Sun published an internal poll for Deakin in Victoria (N=314, Labor=55, Coalition=45, Swing=10).

The Australian, published a marginal seat poll for Queensland, NSW, Victoria and South Australia (N=3500) which Dennis Shanahan interpreted as suggesting “the extent of the Coalition’s losses will be between eight seats — which would allow it to easily retain government — and 22 seats, a six-seat win to Labor”. The analysis from Sol Lebovic is worth reading.

October aggregated: The Morgan poll was the last opinion poll for October. The weighted aggregation of all polls for October, with a combined sample in excess of 13,000 voters, yeilded a predicted vote share for Labor of 55.8 per cent. The Coalition had 44.2 per cent.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Poll trend: The next graph charts a weekly poll trend based on the average of Morgan (face-to-face). ACNielsen and Newspoll. The weekly averages are then smoothed with a 13-term Henderson moving average. The current poll trend is 44.4 per cent for the Coalition and 55.6 per cent for Labor.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

More than 10300 people were polled by ACNielsen, Galaxy, Morgan and Newspoll in September 2007. The weighted aggregation of those polls yield a combined monthly two-party preferred prediction of 57.9 per cent to 42.1 per cent in Labor’s favour. The primary vote predictions were 37.9 per cent for the Coalition and 49.7 per cent for Labor.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Today’s Australian has the latest Newspoll (a day earlier than expected) and the usual commentary from Dennis Shanahan. Shanahan argued that today’s results point to a later rather than earlier election, and he suggested that the “three-point fall in the Labor leader’s satisfaction from a near-record 65 to 62 per cent” points to a possible dulling in Rudd’s sheen.

I agree with Shanahan on the first point. An election before 24 November is highly unlikely. The first and eighth of December are looking better every day. In the next graph we can see that while 2001 and 2004 showed a narrowing throughout the year, the narrowing in 2007 was less pronounced and ceased in June. Since then it has been pretty much a flat line deep in Labor’s favour. Howard can only hold off and hope the polls narrow further immediately before a late election.

On the second point, I suspect Shanahan is reading a little too much into the stochastic perturbations of opinion polling. In this next graph I have plotted the difference between the net satisfaction rating for the prime minister and opposition leaders in 1996 and 2007. Two key points emerge from the graph. First, the 1996 Keating-Howard gap was smaller than the 2007 Howard-Rudd gap. Second, the Howard-Rudd gap has been trending wider over the past three months. (Note: as currently constructed, the graph assumes a 24 November election).

Today’s Newspoll is the second last poll published for September. (Morgan will be the last). So far, almost 9500 people have been polled this month. September is turning out a bit of a shocker for Howard’s re-election strategy.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

The first three polls of spring have been shockers for the Coalition. I usually leave the monthly aggregations until near the end of the month. But with some 3400 people having been polled this month, interesting statistics have emerged. The weighted aggregation to date for September sees Labor on 58.5 per cent of the two party preferred vote. The Coalition is on 41.5 per cent.

If the remainder of the polls for September are similar, the Coalition will have dropped three points since its July peak, and it would be five points off where it should be if it is be electorally competitive by the end of the year.

The trend lines and the moving averages tell a consistent story: the Coalition’s claw back has stalled.

To me these do not look like the kind of numbers that would see an election called before the week is over.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

The latest Morgan is out. While it was in Labor landslide territory, it was the most favourable poll for the Coalition this month. With a sample size of 1274, it was also around 400 to 500 people fewer than I was expecting.

Three of the last four Morgan polls have been close to 55 for Labor and 45 for the Coalition. Newspoll was in much the same space over the same period. The last ACNielsen was also there. While the most recent Galaxy was more favourable for Labor, the Galaxy poll before that was 54/46 in Labor’s favour. My suspicion is that the underlying trend is has been stagnant around 55 to 45 for the past couple of months. According to the election calculator, 55 per cent for Labor would see it win 94 seats.

That completes the polling for August. We seem to have a hiccup to the trend that emerged between March and July. The Coalition is around 1.5 points off where they would want to be at the moment. It will be interesting to see whether September sees a return to the March-July trend or a plateauing.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.