Oz Politics Blog

Yesterday, saw the Treasurer’s debate between Wayne Swan and Peter Costello. The majority view appears to be a tie on content, but a stylistic win to Costello.

The Coalition made policy statements on local roads funding, a counselling service for families who lose a baby through miscarriage, stillbirth or prematurity and vouchers for training small business owners and their employees.

Labor made policy statements on a medical clinic for Queanbeyan and improving transparency in the appointment of board members to the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Jim Middleton reported a change in campaigning style in Goodbye Captain Crankypants.

Betting market: “The Prime Minister looks to be safe in his home seat of Bennelong according to punters betting with Australia’s biggest bookmaker, Sportingbet Australia. According to Sportingbet Australia CEO, Michael Sullivan, the odds of Mr Howard retaining his seat are $1.38, whilst punters who think Maxine McKew can pull off a massive upset and unseat the Prime Minister can have odds of $2.85.”

Newspoll: The latest Newspoll was published in today’s Australian. The headline two-party preferred result from the sample of more than 1700 voters was the best for John Howard since mid-February: 54 to 46 in Labor’s favour.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Yesterday, Labor made policy statements on the Great Barrier Reef, women’s health and the Great Eastern Highway in WA.

The Coalition made a statement on technical colleges.

Betting markets: The latest media statement from Sportingbet Australia included the following, “John Howard will begin this week with the seemingly impossible job of coming from behind at odds $3.25 in the betting market to win. Sportingbet Australia CEO, Michael Sullivan today revealed that such a feat had not been achieved previously to his knowledge in the history of election betting. ‘I’ve been running betting markets on elections for twenty years now and I’ve never seen either Party come from this far behind in the odds to win,’ said Sportingbet CEO Michael Sullivan.”

Yesterday was the 14th full day in the election campaign.

The Coalition web site had two new policy statements: Bass Strait transport, and uncapped funding for the Work Skills Voucher program.

The Labor website had polcy statements on: Leichhardt Oval, a Fair Work Australian Office for the NT and a defence industry in Bendigo.

Toys: The Australian has some nice toys on its web site: the Mackerras Pendulum, follow the leader and electorate maps.

Yesterday was the thirteenth full day of the official election campaign. We have just under four weeks until the election.

Labor announced a policy to help renters fight climate change.

There were no new policy announcements on the Coalition website.

Polls: The Sunday Mail comissioned Galaxy to poll Wayne Swan’s relatively safe Labor seat of Lilley. Galaxy predicted that Swan would win the seat with 59 per cent of the primary vote. Liberal candidate Scott McConnell polled 32 per cent, the Greens’ Simon Kean-Hammerson 7 per cent and others 2 per cent. No sample size was given for the poll.

Simon Jackman has an interesting piece on polling methodology.

Betting markets: As Jason Koutsoukis noted, the betting markets have taken a turn against the Coalition in recent days. Last Sunday, the average probability of a Coalition win from the five bookmakers I am tracking was 42.7 per cent. This morning it was 28.6 per cent.

And if you spotted it, we have an arbitrage opportunity. If you bet $1000, placing $280 on the Coalition with SportsAcumen, and $720 on Labor with SportingBet, you would win a guaranteed $1008 (a net gain of $8). I suspect that by the time you read this, the arbitrage opportunity will have gone.

The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

On the lighter side: Yesterday delivered what might become the most memorable line of the 2007 election campaign: “Our fear campaign is based on fact”.

And I would love to know what this has to do with an election campaign: Shadow Treasurer Wayne Swan giving tips on how to reduce your shopping bill. Nothing partisan. All perfectly sensible. It is just not much to do with an election.

The Coalition released policy statements on renewable energy and cancer care for teenagers and young people.

Labor released policy statements on solar schools and homes and open government.

Enrolment: George Megalogensis reported on a large youth enrolment for the 2007 election.

Late yesterday the Australian Electoral Commission released its final head count for who is registered to vote. It showed the number of 18-year-olds eligible to vote jumped by 10.3 per cent when compared with the previous election. The upshot of this is that in 2004, when the roll closed a leisurely week later, the number of 18-year-olds had fallen 0.2 per cent against the 2001 figure.

Others commenting on the level of youth enrolment include: Mumble, Simon Jackman, Paul Bibby and Sarah Miles.

Polls:

• Morgan face-to-face: 56-44 (Labor) [20-21 October 2007, n=996]
• Morgan phone: 54.5-45.5 (Labor) [24-25 October 2007, n=520]
• ACNielsen online (from a randomly selected panel): 56-44 (Labor) [23-25 October 2007, n=1415]
• Patterson Research Eden-Monaro: 56-44 (Labor) [22-24 October 2007, n=400]

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Poll trend: The next graph charts a weekly poll trend based on the average of Morgan (face-to-face). ACNielsen and Newspoll. The weekly averages are then smoothed with a 13-term Henderson moving average.