Betting market update
I remain surprised at the dissonance between the polls and the betting market. The market thinks Howard has pretty much an even chance at winning the next election. The average probability of a Coalition win from the five bookmakers is 49.1 per cent — not that different to where it was on Tuesday (49.9 per cent). In the past week we have had three more shocker polls for the government.
| Bookmaker | Coalition Odds | Labor Odds | Probability of a Coalition Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centrebet | $1.95 | $1.83 | 48.4% |
| IASBet | $1.92 | $1.85 | 49.1% |
| SportingBet | $1.95 | $1.80 | 48.0% |
| SportsBet | $1.80 | $1.95 | 52.0% |
| SportsAcumen | $1.96 | $1.80 | 47.9% |
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