Oz Politics Blog

The Australian has published the latest Newspoll results. The national two-party preferred vote prediction, were an election held last weekend, was 52 per cent for Labor and 48 per cent for the Coalition. The primary vote prediction was 41 per cent for Labor and 42 per cent fo the the Coalition [correction].

The Government has been in decline for some months, and is clearly behind in the polls. Nonetheless, with a primary vote prediction of 42 per cent and 12 months to go until the next election, the Government cannot be written off at this stage.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

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Apologies, but I have had a few computer problems over the last month. Though late, it is instructive. The Aggregated polling for September 2005 saw Labor increase its lead.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

The latest Morgan poll results are out. Labor is a ahead on a national two-party preferred basis with a predicted 53 per cent of the vote. The Coalition would get 47 per cent.

On the primary votes, Labor is ahead on 41.5 per cent to the Coalition’s 40.5 per cent.

According to the pollster:

With an interest rate rise (on Melbourne Cup day) there will be an immediate effect on the mood of electors, especially considering the L-NP’s last election campaign revolved around economic capability and it’s track record of low interest rates compared to Labor Government’s of the past.

The ALP is still ahead of the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis (53% cf. 47%) and more interest rate rises will further consolidate the ALP’s winning position in the lead up to next year’s Federal election.

However, now 58.5% (unchanged) think the L-NP will win the next Federal election compared to only 28.5% who think the ALP will win. When this gap begins to narrow, it will be a clear indication that the effect of interest rate rises is detrimental to the Government’s chances of being re-elected next year.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

With yesterday’s news that underlying or core inflation is above the Reserve Bank’s target range of two to three per cent, an interest rate rise is a safe bet when the Reserve Bank Board meets on the first Tuesday in November.

It will be the third increase this year, and the seventh straight rise since 2002. Some economists are predicting an eighth increase in February 2007.

In July I wrote that we are starting to see increased speculation that the 2007 election will see a change of government driven by a change in the economic fundamentals. I expect more of the same.

It will be interesting to see how the betting market responds in the next few weeks.

Update 11 November: Labor are keen to make this an election issue with the following campaign.