Oz Politics Blog

Today’s papers had two polls. Notwithstanding the Morgan poll of a fortnight ago, a consensus is emerging: the Coalition has recovered from its poll slump in the last quarter of 2005.

ACNielsen: 51 to 49 in the Coalition’s favour

The last of the pollsters is out of the blocks for 2006. Today’s ACNielsen poll had the Coalition leading Labor in the predicted national two-party preferred vote by 51 to 49 per cent. The Coalition polled particularly strongly outside the capital cities, where it led 59 to 41 per cent on a two-party basis. In the capital cities Labor was ahead 55 to 45 per cent.

Perhaps the most worrying figure for Labor was its primary vote: 36 per cent. The rule-of-thumb is that Labor needs 40 per cent to win government.

The poll continued a trend since July last year: Beazley’s disapproval rating was higher than his approval rating; however, the gap is closing.

ACNielsen also asked some interesting one-off questions.

First, “Seventy-four per cent of voters expect Mr Howard to serve until the next election - up six points since November and 30 points more than 16 months ago.”

Second, “Voters were asked to choose from a list of five who they thought would be best to lead after Mr Howard. There was a huge gap between Mr Costello’s 36 per cent and Foreign Minister Alexander Downer on 14 per cent (steady since May 2005). Health Minister Tony Abbott, polling 10 per cent, has slipped three points. Brendan Nelson, promoted to the defence portfolio in last week’s reshuffle was up one point to 6 per cent, only a point ahead of Senator Amanda Vanstone, who is unchanged on 5 per cent.”

Third, “62 per cent of them believe Senator McGauran made an error in defecting to the Liberals from the National Party and should resign his Senate seat rather than hold it for the Liberals.”

Newspoll: 52 to 48 in the Coalition’s favour

The second Newspoll for 2006 was largely unchanged from the first, and consistent with ACNielsen. It predicted a national two-party preferred vote of 52 per cent for the Coalition compared with 48 per cent for Labor.

Newspoll had the same bad news for Labor: a primary vote of 36 per cent (down one from the Newspoll a fortnight ago).

The graphs

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

There was a slight movement to the Coalition over the past week with one bookie. The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 55.0 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election.

• For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.65 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.10 (unchanged from the previous report). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56 per cent.
• For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.75 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.05 (unchanged). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.9 per cent.
• SportingBet is paying $1.72 for a Coalition win and $2.05 for a Labor win (unchanged). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 54.4 per cent.
• SportsBet is paying $1.67 for a Coalition win and $2.10 for a Labor win (was $1.70 and $2.05). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 55.7 per cent.

There has been no movement at Sportingbet on the Liberal leadership this week.

There is no change in respect of NSW. The next New South Wales election is due on 24 March 2007 and Centrebet is paying $1.65 for a Labor win and $2.10 for a Coalition win. The implied win probabilities are 56 per cent for Labor and 44 per cent for the Coalition.

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

The winners

Let’s start from the outside and work our way up.

Malcolm Turnbull goes from the backbench to Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister with particular responsibility for water policy. I suspect the water policy Howard had in mind was to have Turnbull inside the tent, pissing out; rather than outside the tent, pissing in.

Andrew Robb has been promoted from the backbench to the Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Immigration and Multicultural Affairs.

Bob Baldwin has been promoted from the backbench to the Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Industry, Tourism and Resources

Senator Santo Santoro has been promoted from the backbench (ahead of Robb and Turnbull) to the outer ministry as the new Minister for Ageing.

Bruce Billson joins the outer ministry as Minister for Veterans’ Affairs and Minister Assisting the Minister for Defence. He was the Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs.

Sharman Stone goes from Parliamentary Secretary (Finance) to the outer ministry as Minister for Workforce Participation.

Gary Nairn (Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister) will join the outer ministry as Special Minister of State.

Mal Brough has been promoted from the outer ministry (Minister for Revenue and Assistant Treasurer) to Cabinet and the expanded portfolio of Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs.

Julie Bishop has been promoted from the outer ministry (Minister for Ageing) to Cabinet as Minister for Education, Science and Training. She will also become Minister assisting the Prime Minister for Women’s Issues.

Senator Nick Minchin – keeps Finance and Administration – now Leader of the Government in the Senate.

Senator Helen Coonan – keeps Communications, Information Technology and the Arts – now Deputy Leader of the Government in the Senate.

The losers

Warren Entsch has been stood down as Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Industry, Tourism and Resources.

Senator Ian Macdonald has been stood down as Minister for Fisheries, Forestry and Conservation.

Senator Kay Patterson has (been) retired as the Minister for Family and Community Services.

De-Anne Kelly has been demoted from the outer ministry (Veterans’ Affairs) to the Parliamentary Secretary for Trade.

The National Party lost one position in the outer ministry with Kelly’s demotion. This reflects the Nationals representation in Parliament, following the defection of Julian McGauran.

Addendum: Capable Costello supporters, George Brandis, Christopher Pyne, Bruce Baird, and Tony Smith were passed over when it came to the promotions. (Although Brough and Bishop have also been reported as Costello supporters, and they were big winners in this reshuffle).

Swings and roundabouts

While Senator Hill has left the ministry, he cannot be called a loser. After an appropriately discrete break, the hot gossip is that he will be appointed as the Ambassador to the United Nations.

Although Senator Vanstone lost Indigenous Affairs, she remains in Cabinet with Immigration and Multicultural Affairs – when the Ministry list is released, she may even have moved up a spot in terms of Cabinet seniority.

Brendan Nelson moves from Education, Science and Training to Defence. Some have called this a promotion, but I think the Defence behemoth has a touch of the poisoned chalice about it.

John Cobb will become Minister for Community Services. He was Minister for Citizenship and Multicultural Affairs.

Peter Dutton (Minister for Workforce Participation) becomes the Minister for Revenue and Assistant Treasurer. Some might argue this is a promotion within the outer ministry.

Eric Abetz (Special Minister of State) will become Minister for Fisheries, Forestry and Conservation. There is still no Tasmanian in Cabinet!

Richard Colbeck will become Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Finance and Administration. He was Parliamentary Secretary for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry.

Sussan Ley will become Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry. She was Parliamentary Secretary for Children and Youth Affairs.

Teresa Gambaro will become Parliamentary Secretary for Foreign Affairs. She was Parliamentary Secretary for Defence.

Senator Sandy Macdonald will become Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Defence. He was Parliamentary Secretary for Trade.

Next steps

This is a substantial reshuffle, so I think we can expect an “I intend to stay on as party leader” statement from Howard any time soon.

It will be interesting to see whether any Departmental Secretaries change with the new arrangements.

There are no changes on the betting market to report this week. The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 54.7 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election.

• For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.65 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.10 (unchanged from the previous report). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56 per cent.
• For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.75 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.05 (unchanged). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.9 per cent.
• SportingBet is paying $1.72 for a Coalition win and $2.05 for a Labor win (unchanged). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 54.4 per cent.
• SportsBet is paying $1.70 for a Coalition win and $2.05 for a Labor win (unchanged). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 54.7 per cent.

Notwithstanding the speculation that Howard is about to announce his intention to stay on til (at least) the next election, there has been no movement at Sportingbet on the Liberal leadership this week.

There is no change in respect of NSW. The next New South Wales election is due on 24 March 2007 and Centrebet is paying $1.65 for a Labor win and $2.10 for a Coalition win. The implied win probabilities are 56 per cent for Labor and 44 per cent for the Coalition.

If anyone is aware of an internet bookmaker with odds for the South Australian, Tasmanian or Victorian state elections, please let me know.

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

A couple of days ago the Minister for Defence, Senator Robert Hill, resigned.

This morning, we learnt the Family and Community Services Minister Kay Patterson is retiring ahead of the axe.

By noon we had discovered that Fisheries, Forestry and Conservation Minister Ian Macdonald has been sacked from the Howard ministry.

Though not everyone is leaving. Foreign Minister Alexander Downer is not moving.

It looks like Howard did the ring around last Thursday, so presumably the other winners and losers know the outcome. As such secrets can not last long, I expect the announcement of the new ministry either later today or tomorrow.

Also, this means the Ministry reshuffle, in whatever form it takes, will be substantial (affecting at least two Cabinet ministers, a junior minister, and the consequentials throughout the ministry and parliamentary secretaries). The corollary is that Howard intends to stay on. Costello keeps Treasury. And the PM transition window is closing til perhaps 2009.

Michelle Grattan has some amusing suggestions for Howard to consider.

Update 23 January 2004: Today’s papers are full of conflicting hints about who will win and who will lose, and when it will all be announced (today, tomorrow or Wednesday). The gossiped about contenders are:

• Any others who might get the chop: Kelly and Kemp (perhaps after the Commonwealth Games)
• Who will get defence: Minchin, Abbott or Nelson?
• Who will get FACS: Bishop (the new one)
• Who will get promoted to Cabinet: Bishop, Brough and Robb
• Who will get promoted within the Ministry: Pyne, Dutton and Stone
• Who will get promoted to the Ministry: Turnbull, Robb, Scullion, Santoro, Smith and Scott (2nd time)

Labor has an interesting line on the announced departures.

Labor has accused Mr Howard of cleaning out the moderates to create a far-right ministry.

“This is turning out to be John Howard’s night of the long knives against the few remaining Liberal moderates in the federal party,” opposition foreign affairs spokesman Kevin Rudd said.

“This also represents the final conversion of the once mainstream Liberal Party into a much more extreme conservative party.”