Newspoll Quarterly: September 2007
Newspoll released its quarterly polling results in today’s Australian, where you can read Dennis Shanahan’s take on these results.
The Coalition is behind in all categories except Western Australia.
To see how much things have changed, it’s worth comparing the third quarter in 2007 (ie the previous chart) with the first quarter in 2005.
The big mover over the last quarter was non-capital cities, which posted a significant return to Coalition; although still on the downside of the 2004 election result.
I did a little math to approximate the state by state two-party preferred swings from the Newspoll state-by-state primary vote predictions. You can pop these swings into Antony Green’s election calculator when it comes online later today.
| NSW | Vic | Qld | SA | WA | |
| Swing to Labor Q2 2007 (%) | 12.2 | 9 | 11.1 | 10.4 | 5.4 |
| Swing to Labor Q3 2007 (%) | 9.2 | 11 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 4.4 |
When I popped the Q3 swings into Antony’s pre-production model. it predicted a Labor victory with 103 seats. However, as there has been a small trend back to the Coalition over the period (in all states but Victoria it appears), the Q3 averages probably over-estimate the current state of the state-by-state swings.
The full set of quarterly charts should appear in my last post on the Newspoll quarterly.