Climate policy is one of the priorities of the European Union, which is determined to implement a new System of Emissions Trading for buildings, road transport and other additional sectors known as ETS2. This tool, which will come into force in 2027 – although it could be delayed until 2028 if energy prices skyrocket – will extend the European carbon market to sectors such as land transport, so fuel suppliers will have to buy carbon dioxide emission rights, which will have an impact on the final price of gasoline.
The purpose of ETS2, as specified by the EU, is to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030 (compared to 2005 levels). To achieve this, an emissions cap is established that will decrease annually. According to estimates by the European Commission, with a base price of 48 euros per ton of CO2, the increase in the fuel price It could be 0.11 euros per liter for gasoline and 0.13 euros per liter for diesel. The increase in the final price of fuel could exceed 0.50 euros per liter in 2030, since this year it is estimated that the carbon price – paid by polluting companies – will climb to 259 euros per ton.
According to data from the latest Petroleum Bulletin of the European Uniongasoline costs 2.5% less than a year ago, and diesel 0.3% more expensive, with average prices for Spain of 1,467 and 1,397 euros per liter respectively. Based on these prices, with the increases approved by the EU, filling the tank of a vehicle with a capacity of 55 liters would cost 86,735 euros for a gasoline car, while it would cost 83,985 euros for a car that runs on diesel.
Currently the price to fill the tank of a vehicle with the same capacity is 80.69 euros and 76.84 euros for gasoline and diesel cars respectively, which implies that in 2027 Spaniards will pay six euros more for a gasoline car and 7.14 euros more for a diesel one. By 2030, when the price of a ton of CO2 rises to its maximum, Spaniards could pay an average price of 108.18 euros for gasoline and 104.33 euros for diesel. This would mean an increase of 27.5 euros for both types of fuel.
This measure will first affect the most vulnerable households, since it is expected to also increase the price of heating by 3.1 euros annually per MWh. To overcome the possible negative consequencesthe EU has designed a Social Climate Fund, which hopes to mobilize some 86.7 billion euros between 2026 and 2032 thanks to the income generated by the auction of ETS2 emissions rights and will be used to support the most vulnerable sectors through direct aid, investments in energy efficiency, sustainable mobility and building renovation.
For their part, several member states have expressed doubts regarding the real capacity of this fund to address the negative effects of the regulations that will be implemented from 2027. In addition, EU member countries had to transpose the regulations into their national legislation before June 2024, but only Austria complied with the order.
