The average price of mortgages begins to climb in a movement that will be amplified by the 12-month Euribor rally. Households face a totally new and very demanding scenario.
Spanish households that pay a variable or mixed mortgage month after month and the legion of families who need to finance the purchase of a house are receiving a bucket of very cold water in 2026. The idyllic scenario that the normalization of interest rates in Europe depicted when the year began has been blown up thanks to the resurgence of inflation, at the pace of the rise in oil prices.
In the blink of an eye, the Euribor has flown from 2.2% to 2.8% and has begun to increase the monthly cost of all loans for the first time in two years. Ahead of this rally, the price of new mortgages has begun to rise at a pace unprecedented since 2023.
Everything indicates that the war in the Middle East means a before and after in the Spanish mortgage market. The financial entities, which together with giants such as Santander, Bbva, CaixaBank or Bankinter They were clamoring for the end of a price war that was beginning to deteriorate the sector’s margins, they have found themselves in the perfect scenario and with the right excuse to put an end to a time of excess.
braking
The slowdown can already be seen clearly in the monthly statistics of the Bank of Spain. In January, the average interest rate on new operations jumped from 2.61% at the end of 2025 to 2.68%. And in February the pace of increase has been maintained, with a new jump, up to 2.75%.
The increase returns the average price to the highest levels since April of last year. And the month of March has not yet been counted. In the middle of the war in the Middle East, the banks have taken a further turn to the upside and costs.
It could not be otherwise considering that the 12-month Euribor, which serves as a key reference for setting loan prices, has seriously pointed towards the 3% level in recent days. Analysts believe that the rally is highly conditioned by tensions in Iran, but there are several firms, including Bbva, that predict that, when 2027 ends, it could settle at levels of around 2.7%.
There is therefore a change in expectations regarding interest rates also in the medium term.which will continue to change the rules of the game in the mortgage market.
Activity
The next unknown to clear up is when the rise in prices will begin to impact the volume of loan contracting. For now, the figures remain very firm and even grow until February above the levels reached in the first two months of 2025, an exceptional year in which the granting of new mortgages skyrocketed to the highest levels since 2008.
The continuous rise in the price of housing and that of loans to finance it means that many families are bringing forward their decision to apply for a mortgage to prevent the final cost of the operations from skyrocketing. A situation that allows the bank to comfortably meet its concession objectives, at least for now. The economic impact of the Iran war will determine how long.
