The number of migrants crossing the jungles of Colombia and Panama on their way to the United States has decreased in recent weeks, which could indicate a further decline in new arrivals at the southern border.
The tightening of controls imposed by the new president of Panama and the closure of borders after the controversial elections in Venezuela have contributed to the declineaccording to Elias Solis, president of the Panama Red Cross, which offers humanitarian and medical assistance to those making the dangerous journey through the Darien Gap.
Many arrive dehydrated and with stomach problems, injuries and emotional trauma, with Venezuelans, Ecuadorians and Haitians being the largest groups. Crossings by undocumented migrants across the U.S. southern border have plummeted since President Joe Biden’s executive order in June limiting asylum applications, and data from the Darien Gap indicate the number could decline further. This could be a big help for the presidential campaign of Democrat Kamala Harris, who is trying to counter attacks from former President Donald Trump.a Republican, that the administration has not done enough to secure the border. Polls in swing states by Bloomberg News and Morning Consult have shown immigration is the second-biggest issue for voters in the presidential election, behind only the economy.
“Darien’s small numbers are certainly a factor preventing the Republican Party from fully leveraging the border as an attack line against Kamala Harris.”“That’s not the case,” said Adam Isacson, who studies U.S. immigration policy at the Washington Office on Latin America. “Even if it’s just a temporary situation, that dog isn’t barking that much right now.” The number of migrants arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border rose to a record 2.5 million in 2023 but fell this year. Encounters with U.S. agents dropped sharply in June after Biden’s order, and fell further in July.
Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino, who was sworn in on July 1, has closed six of the seven border crossings between Panama and Colombia with barbed wire fences. and has increased maritime patrols in the area, the Panama Red Cross said in its July bulletin.
The Darien Gap is a roadless stretch of rainforest between Colombia and Panama that links South and Central America. For centuries, it was considered virtually impassable. But last year, more than 520,000 people crossed it on their way north, according to the Panamanian government. So far this year, through July, some 216,000 people have crossed the Darien Gap’s jungles from Colombia to Panama, according to Red Cross figures.
Venezuelan vote
The long-term impact of the Venezuelan election on migration is still unclear, though there could be an uptick in the coming months, according to the organization. President Nicolás Maduro won a third term amid widespread international criticism over the transparency of the electoral process. “People migrate for different reasons, such as their socioeconomic situation, political persecution or violence in their own countries,” Solís said. “If the borders with Venezuela are opened, it is very likely that migration flows will continue.”
Mulino campaigned on a promise to close the Darien Gap, which he says poses a threat to Panama’s national security and natural environment. Panama has launched a partnership with the U.S. government to repatriate migrants, and the first deportation flight flew to Colombia last week. According to Ariel Ruiz Soto, an analyst at the Migration Policy Institute, a Washington-based think tank, the impact of these flights will likely be small, and Panamanian authorities do not have the personnel to effectively monitor physical barriers at the Darien Pass, such as barbed wire. One problem for authorities is that it is not easy to return migrants they detain.
