The resounding triumph of donald trump In the US elections, it provided a new bullish foundation to the international stock markets, with gains of around 3% in the main Wall Street indicators and a broad drop in the prices of North American Treasury bonds. This momentum was fully taken advantage of by the valuations of Argentine assets, which were once again among the biggest winners in the round, to begin to shape an exceptional year-end due to the benefits granted.
This Wednesday, the S&P Merval of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange closed with a increase of 2.4%, to 1,976,613 pointswhile a large part of the wheel sustained an increase of more than 4%, to break the psychological barrier of 2,000,000 points for the first time, with a nominal intraday historical maximum of 2,016,579 points. Measured in dollars, according to the “cash with settlement” price, the Merval crossed 1,700 points, which represents a maximum since March 2018.
Among the ADRs and shares of Argentine companies that are traded in dollars on Wall Street, the gains were imposed, led by the securities of Telecom (+10.9%) and the bank papers: Supervielle (+9.6%), Macro (+8.9%) and Banco Francés (+8.7%).
Throughout 2024 the index Merval accumulates a profit of 113% in pesoswhich only at this time of the year can beat inflation, and 78% in dollarsexceptional when compared to the average gains of the New York Nasdaq technology panel (23%) and the S&P 500 (+24%).
For some analysts, Trump’s return to the head of the North American government could benefit the president’s management politically. Javier Mileiwho implements a harsh orthodox adjustment in favor of shrinking the State, consolidating the fiscal surplus and pulverizing inflation, which is still in the three annualized digits.
Another aspect allied for Milei with the result of the elections in the northern giant is in the future decisions of the IMF (International Monetary Fund), an organization to which Argentina still owes some USD 42,181 million and is expected to discuss a new program of extended facilities from 2025.
However, they estimate that Trump’s victory could cause a deterioration in the exchange rate “anchor” maintained by the Central Bank, which carries out a controlled devaluation of 2% monthly.
“Argentines have not yet realized it, but Trump’s victory – which would imply US tariffs on China and other countries – will exert great depreciating pressure on the peso,” he told Reuters an analyst of Goldman Sachs.
Due to Milei’s macroeconomic results, in the eleven months of management, stocks and bonds have reached their highest prices since 2018 and 2020, respectively, measured in dollars.
The local financial market operated limited in general this Wednesday since the banks remained closed for the celebration of Bank Worker’s Day, a situation that led to assets being liquidated within 24 hours.
Ignacio MurúaQuicktrade analyst of the SBS Group, warned: “Be careful with emerging markets, which we said a thousand times that they were cheap, and that they were very much oriented towards China. Well, Trump’s victory could hit China a lot because it could greatly affect its foreign trade and, consequently, its consumption, so perhaps it is time to take profits from emerging markets and see what happens.” .
“The conservative wing of the United States is definitely the winner. A protectionist wing, a wing where they are asking for ‘America for the Americans’, basically. And we are going to see a somewhat complicated movement with respect to emerging countries. There will be some emerging countries that will be affected by these new measures. And there are other countries that may soon flourish. We have to see how the chips fit together, finish understanding what Trump’s plans are to see the emerging countries and which emerging countries can be accommodated,” he indicated. Jorge Ángel HarkerInternational Market Analyst at Adcap Grupo Financiero.
“Those who will be big winners will also be the North American oil companies. They will find a much friendlier environment from a legal point of view, from a regulatory point of view to be able to explore and to be able to carry out their businesses,” added Harker.
