France appeared headed for more political turmoil after so much the far-right National Rally party and the left-wing socialists said they would vote to overthrow the government.
National Rally President Jordan Bardella said in a radio interview Wednesday that his party would support a vote of no confidence scheduled for this afternoon. Boris Vallaud, the leader of the Socialists in the National Assembly, said separately on television that he would also support it.
Those comments seemed to cement the end of Michel Barnier’s short tenure as prime minister, despite a call on Tuesday night from President Emmanuel Macron so that legislators would support the government.
France has been in political limbo since Macron called early national elections in June. after suffering a crushing defeat in the European elections.
That left the lower house divided into three fiercely opposed blocs: a weakened center that supports the president, a left alliance and an extreme right. strengthened led by Marine Le Pen, whose National Rally is now the largest party in parliament.
His supporters, along with those backing the socialists, have enough legislators to bring down the government led by Barnier, who was named prime minister in September with the primary mission of putting France’s messy finances in order.
“The only question that politicians must ask themselves today is how they can be useful to the country and the French people,” Macron told reporters Tuesday during a trip to Saudi Arabia. “Not how they can be useful to their own ambitions or their own interests.”
The president said in Riyadh that if Le Pen’s party supported the motion of censure “it would be a vote of unbearable cynicism,” and added that “I can’t believe they voted in favor” of that motion.
Lawmakers in Paris will begin debating the motions at 4 p.m. on Wednesday, with voting beginning shortly after. Barnier also spoke of the possibility that the motion of censure would not be approved.
“I think it is possible that there is a reflection of responsibility,” Barnier said on French television Tuesday night. ““I think the best interest of the country, the common good, the national interest, means something.”
Bardella said on Wednesday that Macron and Barnier’s comments “They show that they are totally disconnected from what is happening in the country, “who are totally deaf to the suffering of the French people.”
What Bloomberg Economics says…
“Le Pen could prefer political chaos to stability to pressure Macron to resign”said Antonio Barroso, Eleonora Mavroeidi and Jamie Rush.
On Monday, Barnier used a constitutional mechanism to force the passage of an unpopular budget bill, prompting the National Rally and the left-wing coalition to call for votes of no confidence. Le Pen pressed ahead with the motion even after Barnier submitted to almost all of the National Rally’s demands to change budget legislation.
If the government collapses on Wednesday, it would highlight the power Le Pen has gained since Macron called surprise elections in June. It would also mark the shortest term of a prime minister since the founding of the French Fifth Republic in 1958.
The political turmoil has led bond investors to punish France’s sovereign debt relative to its peers, raising borrowing costs at a time given last week to match those of Greece and leading Barnier to warn of a “storm” on financial markets if he is removed from power.
Investors have been worried for months about France’s political difficulties, while the government tries to promote measures to reduce its enormous deficit.
The budget bill initially presented by Barnier’s government contained 60 billion euros ($63.1 billion) of tax increases and spending cuts that pointed to a marked adjustment of the deficit to 5% of economic production in 2025, compared to 6.1% estimated for this year.
The OECD expects the French economy to grow just 0.9% in 2025 and 1% in 2026. He warned that even if the budget is approved, It would be vital to adopt additional measures to significantly reduce public debt.
He also highlighted that weaker-than-expected inflation and economic growth could reduce tax revenues, which would threaten the government’s ability to meet deficit targets.
A government collapse so close to the end of the year would take France into uncharted territory. The outgoing government, acting in a caretaker capacity, could use emergency laws to raise taxes and ensure a minimum level of spending, but the economic and financial impact is difficult to predict.
If the government loses the election, ministers will remain in place with caretaker status to manage current affairs, including emergency legislation to avoid a shutdown. It would then be up to Macron to name a new prime minister, although there is no constitutional deadline for his decision.
The president, for his part, has assured that he will not resign until his term ends. Although the left has called on Macron to resign, he cannot be forced from his position. The next presidential election is scheduled for 2027 and Le Pen remains the favorite, according to polls.
