The United States is three weeks away from an election that commentators have called “totally unpredictable,” and there is no clarity for anyone. With Joe Biden, everything seemed to point to Donald Trump’s return to the White House; However, with Kamala Harris, that scenario has a 50% chance of happening and a 50% chance of not.
Now, a new survey published by The Wall Street Journal found something curious. It seems that in the undecided states Kamala has a very slight advantage against Trump, but paradoxically those same voters consider that he has better tools to solve certain problems.
In the poll, voters in the country’s seven key states believe that Donald Trump is more qualified than Kamala Harris to address the most important concerns, such as the economy and border security. But they are almost evenly divided over who should lead the nation.
Harris has a slight lead in states such as Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia, which will include independent and minor party candidates. Trump, for his part, shows a slight lead in Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Still, none of these differences exceed 2 percentage points, except for Trump’s 5-point lead in Nevada, which, like the other states, is within the poll’s margin of error.
“Overall, of the 4,200 voters surveyed in these states, Trump has 46% support, while Harris gets 45%. The poll indicates that the race in all states is so close that it is difficult to predict a winner. If Harris manages to maintain her advantage in the states where she leads, she could achieve a narrow majority in the Electoral College,” the newspaper reported.
Analysts say the survey also indicates that the campaign has been marked by hostile rhetoric, changes in the Democratic candidate list and two assassination attempts against Trump, which has led voters to adopt more partisan positions. Thus, Trump has the support of 93% of Republicans in these states, while Harris retains 93% of Democrats.
Independent voters are almost evenly divided: 40% support Harris and 39% support Trump, which contributes to making the race very competitive in each state.
“We are in a technical tie that will be defined in the last moments. These three weeks are crucial”said David Lee, a Republican pollster who collaborated with Democrat Michael Bocian on the study, as reported by WSJ, adding that “a vote has never been so close,” Bocian added.
The results suggest Harris could have a potential path to victory through the competitive Sunbelt states, a route that seemed closed when Biden was at the top of the Democratic ticket. In Arizona, 6% more voters support Harris compared to those who supported Biden in March, and their percentage rose five points in Georgia and four in North Carolina.
In contrast, Trump’s percentage has remained almost unchanged in these seven states since March.
“Up to 10% more voters think that Trump would handle the economy better, the issue they consider most important when choosing a candidate. Additionally, 16% favor Trump on immigration and border security issues, which ranks second in their concerns,” the note says.
These advantages raise the question of why Trump does not have a clear advantage over Harris, despite her strengths on the most pressing issues, in a context of pessimism about the direction of the country and the economy, situations that generally negatively affect the party in power. The survey suggests several possible reasons.
“One of them is that voters have a nuanced perspective on the leadership of both candidates on economic issues.Harris leads when asked who would best manage things like health care, in addition to having a slight advantage in terms of housing affordability. Six percent more voters say Harris “cares about people.”
Opinions about the economic situation
Perceptions about the economy indicate that voters make a distinction between the national situation and that of their own state. Nearly two-thirds consider the national economy to be poor or average, while more than a third rate it as good or excellent.
But when evaluating their state’s economy, 52% see it as good or excellent. Half say their personal finances have gotten worse in the last year, slightly higher than the 46% who say they have improved.
