The adjustment of the minimum wage that will govern from January 2026 is beginning to emerge as one of the most relevant economic discussions at the end of the year, even though the formal negotiation between employers, workers and the Government will begin on December 1.
Although none of the parties to the negotiation table have presented an official figure, the arguments that will influence the decision are already on the table.
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Fedesarrollo proposed an increase close to 7%, while the Government has mentioned the possibility of reaching 1,800,000 pesoswhich revived expectations in different sectors.
The Ministry of Labor confirmed that the process will begin this Friday, November 21, as long as the actors at the table approve the schedule.
The discussion will take place in an economic context marked by a lower expansion of productive activity, fiscal restrictions and inflation that has stopped falling in recent months, which introduces additional tensions to the decision.
In this scenario, analysts agree that the challenge will be to balance the protection of labor income with macroeconomic stability.
One of the proposals that has had the most echo came from Luis Fernando Mejía, director of Fedesarrollowho noted that technical fundamentals suggest that the increase by 2026 should not exceed 7%. As he explained, “the expected inflation for 2025 is around 5.3%, while labor productivity will most likely be close to zero or even negative,” which implies that a greater adjustment could generate additional pressures on prices and the labor market.
Mejía stressed that employment has grown at a faster rate than production, which has limited the advance of productivity, a key indicator in the calculation of salary adjustment.
This position arose in response to a recent statement by the Minister of the Interior, Armando Benedetti, who indicated that the minimum wage should reach 1,800,000 pesos in 2026.
This value would imply an increase of 11%, a figure that has also been mentioned by President Gustavo Petroso the comment generated immediate reactions among analysis centers and business representatives.
To size the proposals, if the current minimum wage without transportation assistance is taken as a reference, which is 1,423,500 pesos, an increase of 7% would bring the amount to 1,523,145 pesosequivalent to an increase of 99,645 pesos.
In contrast, if the adjustment were 11%, as some sectors of the Government suggest, the figure would rise to 1,580,085 pesosthat is, 156,585 additional pesos. These numerical differences illustrate the distance between the technical approaches and the political objectives of the discussion.
One of the points that has generated the most attention is the inflationary impact of the increase decreed for 2025, which included transportation aid and reached 11%.
Mejía indicated that this adjustment has already produced visible effects, since inflation completed four consecutive months on the rise and has limited the reduction in the interest rate of the Bank of the Republic.
This background has led to warnings about the risk of repeating similar inflationary pressure in 2026.a scenario that would affect the purchasing power of households and price stability.
However, another of the arguments of the negotiation is precisely the need to ensure that workers do not lose purchasing power. Mejía pointed out that an increase of up to 7% would make it possible to offset the inflation expected for next year without generating significant distortions in the economy.
He highlighted that a disproportionate decision could affect labor formality, slow down job creation and interfere with the inflationary slowdown process that is sought to be consolidated.
As the negotiation approaches, different actors have insisted that the goal should be to achieve a “responsible” adjustmentcapable of protecting the income of those who receive the minimum wage, without compromising macroeconomic stability.
The negotiation table must evaluate variables such as inflation, productivity, growth and the labor market, in addition to the social demands that put pressure on the debate every year.
The discussions will begin with a more uncertain economic outlook than in previous years and with more marked political expectations regarding the closure of the current government.
