Iran has been loading oil onto tankers at a rapid pace in recent days, a potential sign of the Gulf Arab state’s preparations. in case of a US attack.
Exports from Kharg Island from February 15 to 20 amounted to nearly 20.1 million barrels, according to Kpler data. This represents almost triple the amount loaded on the same dates in January and the equivalent of more than three million barrels per day, well above Tehran’s usual daily volume.
The increase comes as the United States builds up the largest combat force in the Middle East since the Second Gulf War in 2003. Last year, shortly before the US airstrikes, Iran rushed to remove its oil from its ports by shipping large volumes on tankers and shipping as much as it could to Kharg Island. A similar pattern was observed in 2024, during a period of high tension.
Oil production and exports are a key pillar of the Iranian economy, and competition to load barrels onto ships would allow Tehran to release as much production as possible before any potential disruption. Those barrels, exported mainly from the island of Kharg, would have to transit through the Strait of Hormuz and, to a large extent, on tankers that do everything possible to avoid detection. Satellite data offers a view of the level of activity on the island.
It’s unclear what will happen to the ships they loaded this time, but they may be dispersed widely if the United States finally attacks, according to Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers.com. which specializes in the analysis of satellite images.
Iran has been loading “as much oil as it can” lately, it said Wednesday, adding that tankers “They will definitely disperse away from the island in case of a new round of airstrikes.”
Madani estimates that Iranian exports will average between 1.5 and 1.6 million barrels per day this month. These figures have been boosted by the increase in shipments since February 15, he added.
TankerTrackers.com only counts exports once the tankers have completely left Iranian waters and are clearly en route to the global market. Kpler counts them as soon as they leave Iranian ports.
The highest flows also appear in satellite images analyzed by Bloomberg.
Between February 15 and 20, the number of tankers observed in the waters southeast of Kharg Island more than doubled, from eight to 18. A partial snapshot of the area on February 22 showed nine tankers remaining.
Crude oil inventories on the island appear to have declined at the same time as tankers appeared, suggesting barrels were loaded onto ships. On February 15, four large crude oil cargo ships and one Suezmax were docked at Kharg Island. Three supertankers (Vlcc) were seen docked on February 20.
A Bloomberg analysis suggests that at least seven tanks were full on February 15, while six more were seen empty on February 20.
Madani corroborated this view, noting that the island’s oil storage was around 67% over the weekend, giving Iran ample leeway to continue refilling tankers if tankers could not load. As of Jan. 26, the tanks had reached 88% capacity, with a capacity of approximately 30 million barrels, he added.
