The International Monetary Fund raised its global economic growth expectations for this year, citing the strength of the US and some emerging markets, while warning that the outlook remains cautious given the persistence of inflation and geopolitical risks. .
Global economic activity will grow 3.2% this year, according to the World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the January estimate. The forecast for 2025 remained at 3.2%.
Reduction in Colombia
In February, the IMF expected the Colombian economy to grow 1.3% this year while it has now updated the forecast to 1.1%. In the case of Argentina it will have a fall of 2.8% and an increase of 5%, respectively; Peru will grow 2.5% and 2.7%; Brazil 2.2% and 2.1%; and Uruguay 3.7% and 2.9%.
Global risks
Despite the overall improvement, The IMF warned that high borrowing costs and the withdrawal of fiscal aid are hampering growth in the short term, while the medium-term outlook They remain the weakest in decades due to low productivity and global trade tensions.
“Many challenges remain and decisive action is needed,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas wrote in an online note accompanying the outlook, noting persistent inflation and growing global inequality.
The outlook paints a picture of a global economy that avoided the worst dangers of stagflation after the pandemic, but with stunted potential in the coming years.
The fight against inflation for central banks is going in the right direction, although it is too early to declare victory by relaxing monetary policy. And risks to growth abound, especially from the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
The IMF also warned of the worrying poor performance of low-income countries compared to the rest of the world, and cut its growth estimate for the group. These countries have experienced higher than expected inflation, due to the strength of the US dollar, as well as the impact of high food, fuel and fertilizer costs.
