In the 2000s, international movements were around 13 million people a year. Today, that number exceeds 35 million. In just over two decades, global migration has almost tripledaccording to joint research by the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), the University of Hong Kong (HKU) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The new database, published in Nature, reveals a profound and accelerated transformation in human mobility patterns.
Far from being a marginal phenomenon, international migration It is growing at a rate that exceeds the increase in the world’s population. This leap does not respond only to sporadic crises, but to long-term demographic and economic transformations. Guy Abelprofessor of the University of Hong Kongexplained: “This upward trend seems driven by sustained demographic changes and economic development, rather than isolated crises.”
Until now, understanding these movements depended on statistics from organisms such as United Nations or the World Bankwhich are updated every five or ten years. This left key episodes, such as wars or pandemics, out of focus. The new methodology uses artificial intelligence and deep learning to link official statistics, censuses, and economic and geographic factors. In this way, an annualized, much more precise and dynamic vision of migratory flows is achieved.
The Persian Gulf, particularly the Arab monarchies, has established itself as the main destination for migrants, especially from South Asia and the Philippines. According to the study, since 2010, 19 million people have migrated from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh toward Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. Annual migration from Bangladesh to Saudi Arabia alone averages 300,000 people, an unprecedented scale in the region.
When compared to other emblematic routes, such as Mexico to USAthe contrast is clear. In the latter, flows total 13.6 million people since 1990, a considerably lower figure despite covering twice as long.
Europe remains the region with the most internal migration, with sustained flows from east to west, especially after the expansion of the European Union and the Schengen area. Before the pandemic, mobility within the continent reached three million people each year. Since 1990, movements from Eastern Europe to Western Europe have totaled nearly 20 million, around 600,000 a year.
The figures allow us to understand how, in migration terms, European integration has generated one of the largest mobility zones on the planet. The report highlights that only in the 1990s, during the civil war in Rwanda, did sub-Saharan Africa surpass Europe in the volume of internal migration.
The study identifies episodes of great impact on the Global Southwhere the lack of data made detailed analysis of the phenomenon difficult. For example, the civil war in South Sudan Starting in 2013, it caused an exodus towards Ethiopia. The violence of the terrorist group Boko Haramactive since 2009 and peaking in 2014, forced some 79,000 Nigerians to flee, of which 45,000 sought refuge in Niger.
These figures show that large displacements due to conflicts, although visible, are not the only explanation for migratory growth. “Our estimates combine classical modeling with deep learning and show the potential of this hybrid approach in computational sciences”he stated Thomas Gaskinresearcher of the LSE and first author of the study.
The research detected specific drops in global migration flows during the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the general trend continues to rise. “Access to more detailed immigration data helps respond to crises and plan services,” the report notes.
The responsible team developed an interactive platform to visualize the data, available on the website of the University of Hong Kong. The objective is to facilitate decision-making and preparation for new migratory waves.
The analysis of LSE, HKU and IIASA provides an unprecedented tool to understand the movement of people on a global scale. International migration, far from stabilizing, continues to increase and reconfigure societies, labor markets and public policies around the world. The challenge for governments will be to anticipate and manage this expanding phenomenon, with accurate and updated information.
