Uncertainty for the generalized application of tariffs continues to feed cuts in the Growth expectations that the market has and now were the UBS bank, as well as Franklin Templeton Fund Administrator, who made the adjustments.
The UBS Bank cut its growth expectation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Mexico to zero in this year, from 1% they had previously.
The adjustment incorporates the drag effect due to the poor performance of the economy in the last quarter Last year, the weakness of investment, consumption, construction, the ability to create jobs, as well as uncertainty for the application of general tariffs, explained the director of Investment Strategy in UBS, Gabriela Soni.
Interviewed by the economist, DIjo that the panorama for the economy is complicated by assuming that the Government has no space to apply a countercyclical policyit is immersed in fiscal consolidation.
Relying on the analysis of the chief economist for Mexico in the firm, Rafael de la Fuente, anticipated that Banco de México will continue to cut the rate to carry monetary policy to a more neutral terrain that will subtract pressure on economic activity.
The base scenario of the firm is that there will be no general tariffs because in addition to the mission of Mexican officials who are negotiating with the government of that countrythere are groups of entrepreneurs and farmers who are also trying to sensitize President Donald Trump about the effect they will have on the corporations of the United States, he said.
“Our supply chains are too integrated and tariffs would also damage sectors of that country”He said.
Yesterday, the vice president and co -director of Investments at Franklin Templeton Fund Administrator, Luis Gonzali, warned that “In a negative scenario”, to which he grants 20% probability, the Mexican economy will enter a technical recession with two quarters consecutive in contraction, the last of last year and the first of this 2025.
This performance would align the position of GDP to reach zero growthhe said.
By participating in the monthly webinar of the Fund Administrator, he said that in this scenario, United States would radicalize authoritarianism, would apply generalized rates and inflation in Mexico It would be pressed until a variation of 5 percent is completed.
Under this scenario the stagflation would materialize where, despite having an economy in contraction, inflation accelerates and that would also be the situation in the United States, he said.
However, Franklin Templeton’s central scenario, With 60% probability of presenting is a growth of just 0.60% that incorporates a cut from 1.2% planned previously.
Recession if there are generalized tariffs
Soni, from UBS, said that 25% tariffs are very low generalized in all import products, but if presenting, anticipates that the Mexican economy will fall into recession.
Gonzali, dE Franklin Templeton said that in a negative scenario that contemplates technical recession of two consecutive quartersthe Mexican economy would have zero growth.
“The Nearshoring that promised the relocation of companies to Mexico to produce here and export to the United States is not dead. SI is in a coma, with the stagnant investment and will return once the negotiation of the TMEC is completed, In 2026, ”he said.
Just Wednesday, Banco Barclays admitted that there is the possibility that tariffs are executed as the United States president raised from the beginningwith a 25% rate for all products.
Nor is its central scenario, but if they present themselves, they also anticipate zero growth for this year and advance of just 1% GDP of 2026.
For Barclays the central scenario is still 1.2% growth for this year.
Banamex economists were the first to cut their expectation to zero growth, since March 4, Once the United States confirmed the entry into operation of generalized tariffs that over a few hourshe paused.
The economist for Mexico from BNP Paribas, Pamela Díaz Loubet, agreed to share that in the firm they already have several estimates under different scenarios and the application “More or less transient (of tariffs), during a quarter the GDP”, It would bring to zero growth to the economy.
Franklin Templeton sees regionalization
Investment Fund Administrator Franklin Templeton estimates that The country will continue to grant concessions to the United States with a view to the ratification of the commercial agreement T-MEC.
Under this scenario, to which 60% probability of being fulfilled, anticipate that Mexico will join the protectionist policy which is promoting the United States, which will end up regionalizing trade.
“Mexico, as a good commercial partner, which directs 80% of its imports to the United Statesand has a weak position at the negotiating table is acting in a sensible way, and aims to impose tariffs on China, ”he said.
Gonzali stressed that “at the end of the day, We will have regional protectionism, with North America against the European Union; North America against China and against other economic blocks. ”
He explained that tariffs will have a cost to the population in the United States and President Donald Trump has all the conviction to apply them and assume the consequences. This has begun to see the fall of the bags and the S&P.
“As markets do not like to digest uncertainty, they prefer to stay out, sell before putting more money on the table. So we must be prepared, because the volatility will be persistent and will continue as much as the commercial war. And the commercial war starts, ”he said.
Clear economic effect; In uncertain inflation
All analysts expect that the Board of Banco de México Government will apply another 50 -base adjustment at the March 27 meeting. In UBS they see high probabilities of a new cut of that same magnitude at the meeting scheduled for May 15.
According to Soni, the UBS economists team anticipates that the rate will end the year at 7.50% instead of 8.50% they had previously plannedwhich will lead to monetary policy closer to neutrality.
JP Morgan experts recorded that an implicit depreciation would be presented of the exchange rate that could relive inflationary pressures.
Soni agreed to anticipate the depreciation of the peso against the dollar, but relies on investigations of the Bank of Mexico that confirm a lower exchange transfer to inflation.
In fact, he cited an UBS analysis where they point out that Despite the depreciation of 20% that was recorded last year in the weight, the so -called Pass Through/ exchange transfer.
