World trade continues to show resilience and growth, Despite political and economic uncertainty. This is revealed by the DHL Trade Atlas 2025, a report prepared by DHL in collaboration with the Stern School of Business of the University of New York and was released in Mexico City by DHL.
This document analyzes the main trends of global trade and emphasizes that, in the next five years, trade will grow at a faster rate than in the last decade.
According to the report, world trade will expand at an annual rate composed of 3.1 % between 2024 and 2029. This growth, driven by emerging economies such as India, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines, Challenges concerns about possible slowdown due to geopolitical tensions and protectionist measures in some countries.
One of the key points of the analysis is the impact of the United States commercial policies. Despite the uncertainty generated by the return of Donald Trump to the Presidency and its proposals to increase tariffs, The report argues that global trade will continue to rise, although at a more moderate rate if these policies are implemented in its entirety.
Another significant finding is long -distance trade growth. Although there has been much talk about regionalization and “nearshoring” (relocation of production near consumption markets), The report indicates that the average distance of marketed goods reached a record of 5,000 kilometers in 2024. This shows that globalization remains a key factor in commercial dynamics.
The analysis also highlights how China remains a fundamental actor in global trade, despite the restrictions imposed by the United States. While American direct imports from China have decreased, Chinese products continue to enter the US through other countries, indicating a difficult interdependence to completely dismantle.
Emirates Arabs, Ireland and Vietnam
Three countries are among the top 30 in the world, both for speed (growth rate) and by scale (absolute quantity) of the growth in its merchandise trade volume in the last five years: the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam and Ireland.
India also stands out as the third country with the highest planned commercial growth (6%of additional world trade), only behind China (12%) and the United States (10%).
It is estimated that South Asia, Sub -Saharan Africa and Sudoriental Asia will achieve a much faster commercial volume growth than the rest of the regions between 2024 and 2029. However, Europe, slower growth, generates the greatest proportion (30%) of the total global growth of the global trade is expected.
It is forecast that high -income economies will generate 58% of trade growth, while low -income economies will generate 42%.
And uncertainty?
Against the predictions that mention that the recent disturbances would lead to more regionalized commercial patterns, during the first nine months of 2024 the trade toured the largest average distance recorded (5,000 km). The proportion that takes place within the main geographical regions decreased to a new minimum (51%).
As for the fastest growing sectors, manufactured products continue to dominate global trade. However, the report indicates that the rise in mineral fuel prices has significantly promoted its value in commercial exchanges. A significant growth is also expected in sectors such as machinery, electrical equipment and pharmaceutical products.
“It is impressive to see that international trade continues to resist all imaginable challenges, from the 2008 financial crisis and Covid pandemic to tariffs and geopolitical conflicts. In the current global business environment, DHL can help customers reassess their supply chains establishing a balanced approach between costs and risks, to make them at the same time efficient and safe“says John Pearson, Global CEO of the DHL Express.
With a perspective of sustained growth and an adaptation to changes in commercial dynamics, the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 emphasizes that international trade remains a key engine for the world economy.
“Although the US could withdraw from commerce (with a significant cost), it is not likely that other countries will follow that path, because smaller countries would suffer the consequences of a global withdrawal from trade,” concluded Steven Altman, academic researcher and research director.
