He economy minister, Luis Caputocould make the supply of dollars in the final stretch of the year even more complicated by the field. In the last few hours, a ton of wheat became worth USD 160 on slate, a value that it had not had since 2019, due to international factors of overproduction. However, all is not lost, since this loss could be compensated with volume.
In the 2025/2026 campaign, the global wheat production record may be broken, with an estimated harvest of 825 million tonsaccording to the United States Department of Agriculture and the International Grains Council. “In general terms, almost all the main wheat exporters have had excellent productive conditions,” he highlighted. Infobae the director of Economic Studies of the Rosario Stock Exchange, Julio Calzada.
And it is this recovery of the production of exporters throughout the European Union (especially France and Germany) and Russia, which complicated the value of Argentine wheat. “At the same time, China has been buying less than it usually does, 12 million tonsbecause its production increased,” he added.
Faced with this, the supply of dollars for Caputo It can look complicated. “We are having a record harvest nationwide, but this is hitting the price hard.”. On blackboard, the price is USD 160but when we look at the FOB, it remains the same and the payment capacity is at USD 180, which means that they are paying USD 20 less than they could“, highlighted the grain market operator, Mariela Brandolin.
In this scenario, the recommendation that many market operators make to their clients is to wait to sell as long as they can. So that sales slow down and those USD 160 become a flat. And although it is difficult to specify when it can happen, they give as an example what happened with soybeans: it became worth US$250 and within weeks the price recovered when harvest pressure was overcome.
A more optimistic stance had Javier Patinoof RIA Consultantswho did not consider that it will affect the offer of dollars for the minister Caputo. “The country exports 16 million tons of wheat, of which half, 8 millionenter between December and March. And if you lose due to prices FOB USD 20are “USD 160 million, it’s not that much if it were to be that,” he commented, adding that the greater volume could compensate for the lower price..
So, in your calculations, if you export 8 million at a value of USD 209 FOBto the minister Caputo they would admit him USD 1.6 billion during the summer. “It’s not much if you compare it to soybeans, where 25 million tons of flour and 5 million tons of oil are exported,” he compared.
Although it occurs at a complicated time for the reserves of the Central Bank (BCRA), which are in the area of USD 40,000 million, and for the Treasury’s dollar deposits, but without room to buy against the pesos available due to the fiscal surplus and the maturities of public debt.
“This last week they entered almost 500,000 tons from wheat to ports, a 25% more than during 2021, when the great harvest of the 2021/22 campaign begins to enter the market,” they highlighted in the weekly report of the Rosario Stock Exchange. This is explained by the high demand for export, given the competitiveness of the Argentine crop in the international market.
So far this month, they have already embarked 516,000 tonsand the programming is almost 900,000 more for the remainder of November, so there is a high probability that before the 2025/26 campaign officially begins, wheat exports will set a new record for the penultimate month of the year (the last maximum was in 2004, with 1.1 Mt shipped).
“As we are against the season in the northern hemisphere, exporters take advantage to sell now because later you have to compete with wheat from Canada, the United States, Ukraine, Russia”highlighted Patino.
And he explained that since Argentine wheat has to reach markets in Southeast Asia, which are very close to Australian wheat, for them to buy Argentine wheat the price has to be the same or cheaper. “With which you need to absorb the higher cost of freight and that is absorbed from the producer’s price,” he highlighted.
