The storm is expected to hit Jamaica as early as Monday night before heading toward Cuba.
The 18-kilometer-wide eye of Hurricane Melissa, surrounded by its strongest winds, begins what experts describe as an “extremely slow turn” toward Jamaica. The storm will move over the island at the speed of a person walking, prolonging its impact for hours. That is why officials predict that it will leave a total of rain that will not be measured in centimeters, but in meters.
Melissa is on a trajectory that is certain to impact Jamaica, Cuba, and possibly even the Bahamas, as a force of intense destruction over the next few days.
Monday: the turn
Jamaican authorities warned the population not to leave home, as flash and catastrophic flooding, as well as numerous landslides, are expected between Monday and Tuesday.
Torrential rains will continue in Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Cuba, as the hurricane slowly turns north towards the southern Jamaican coast.
As the storm approaches the island overnight Monday, destructive winds will arrive, especially in mountainous areas. According to authorities, these winds could last 24 hours or more, causing extensive infrastructure damage, prolonged power outages, communications failures and isolated communities.
Although the fiercest winds near the center of Melissa on Monday morning reached the strength of a Category 5 hurricane, forecasters warned that the storm could fluctuate in intensity over the next 24 hours, with the possibility of even stronger gusts.
The hurricane will also generate a potentially deadly storm surge toward the coast. Water, pooling near the eye and on the eastern flank of the storm, could rise three to four meters above ground level next day.
Tuesday: first impact
The eye of Melissa is almost certain to make landfall on the south coast of Jamaica on Tuesday morning and pass over the north coast on Tuesday afternoon. Although there is still a slight chance that the center of the storm will slide around the island, forecasters say this will not have a big impact on the overall threat.
The storm could weaken slightly before making landfall, but officials stress there is no practical difference between Category 4 and Category 5, as both can cause catastrophic wind damage. In the mountains, winds will likely be even stronger than on the beaches.
The rains will continue, with accumulations of more than one meter in some areas of Jamaica. That could lead to landslides, flash flooding and weakening of the soil, making trees more vulnerable to wind. Haiti and the Dominican Republic will also experience heavy rain, and tropical storm force winds (starting at 63 kilometers per hour) are expected towards the end of Tuesday.
Although Jamaica’s mountainous terrain could weaken Melissa slightly, forecasts indicate that it will reach southeastern Cuba at Category 3 strength or higher. As you cross the island, a system off the U.S. coast could serve as an “exit ramp,” accelerating your movement from human pace to runner’s pace.
Tuesday night: second impact
Between Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning, the center of Melissa will likely make landfall in Cuba, passing through the southeast of the country toward the Bahamas.
Cuba could receive between 30 and 60 centimeters of rain, a storm surge of 2 to 3 meters on its southeastern coast and destructive winds. However, the duration of extreme bad weather could be shorter than in Jamaica.
Wednesday: threat of a third impact
By midday Wednesday, the hurricane will move over the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. If the center of Melissa passes directly over any island, a third impact could occur. Although the system will have weakened somewhat, it may still present hurricane conditions.
Rainfall of 10 to 20 centimeters is expected Tuesday through Wednesday night in the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, along with significant storm surge and destructive winds.
The torrential rain will begin to taper off first in Jamaica, then in Hispaniola and Cuba.
Thursday: the final path
Melissa’s fast pace could put it near Bermuda on Thursday night, although that stretch of the forecast remains the most uncertain. The agreement between computer models – which place it over Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas – gives some confidence to meteorologists, but the latest simulations on Monday show a slight shift westward, away from Bermuda. Experts said they won’t be able to be 100 percent certain about Melissa’s final course until it turns definitively north or northeast on Monday.
The probability of the hurricane hitting the United States remains low.
As it develops into a more typical system, it could affect Canada’s Maritime provinces over the weekend.
Although heavy rain is expected in the eastern United States between Thursday and Friday, it will not be caused by Melissa. This is another more common system forming near the East Coast that will attract tropical moisture, which could cause locally heavy rain and isolated flooding in parts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern parts of the country.
