For Donald Trump, the result of Tuesday’s election is about more than winning the White House: It’s also about the future of criminal cases that put him at risk of spending time behind bars.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. If Trump wins, he could exercise the broad powers of the US presidency to protect himself from ongoing federal prosecutions. If he loses, he faces the threat of being sentenced to prison in New York later this month.
Trump has already made clear that, as president, he will act quickly to end federal prosecutions because he will have ultimate authority over the Justice Department. That will eliminate the threat of decades behind bars. Although the Constitution does not allow him to order state prosecutors to dismiss cases, he could try to delay them indefinitely.
The most immediate legal threat to Trump is the ruling that a New York state judge will hand down on Nov. 26 in the so-called bribery case, the only one that has gone to trial so far. If Trump wins, his legal team will have new arguments to try to overturn the sentence and get the case dismissed entirely.
Trump has denied wrongdoing in every case that state and federal prosecutions have brought against him.
Hush-Money case (New York state)
In May, a New York jury found Trump guilty of 34 felonies for falsifying business records to conceal a $130,000 payment to former adult film actress Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg claimed the payment was part of a scheme to influence the election by preventing tabloid stories from being published.
New York State Judge Juan Merchan delayed sentencing until after Tuesday’s election. Trump has called for the verdict to be thrown out, arguing that the trial included evidence that should not have been allowed under a new immunity standard from the U.S. Supreme Court.
In July, the highest court held that former presidents largely enjoy immunity from criminal charges arising from their official conduct while in office. Merchan said he will rule on Trump’s immunity argument by Nov. 12.
If Trump wins: The judge could suspend the sentence to avoid concerns about the president-elect’s appearance in criminal court, and the case could be postponed until Trump’s term ends. Trump’s lawyers could also fight to have the verdict overturned in light of an election victory.
If Trump loses: sentencing will be carried out, as long as Merchan does not order a new trial on immunity grounds. Trump faces up to four years in prison, but legal experts say he will likely receive a much shorter sentence.
Federal election fraud case (Washington)
In August 2023, special counsel Jack Smith charged Trump with conspiring to overturn the results of the 2020 election and inciting a deadly riot at the U.S. Capitol.
Trump argued that he has immunity from criminal prosecution because he was president, a fight that went all the way to the Supreme Court. While the justices generally sided with Trump, they sent the case back to U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan to decide whether it could move forward under the court’s new immunity standard.
Smith, seeking to keep the case alive, filed an updated indictment in August that redacted some details. that could be affected by the Supreme Court ruling, but included the same claims against Trump.
If Trump wins: Trump would likely order his attorney general to close the case. Trump also told a conservative podcaster that he would quickly fire Smith.
If Trump loses: The case will move toward a possible trial, in which Trump faces the risk of spending decades behind bars. But the two sides are still arguing over immunity, and depending on the judge’s decision, more appeals are likely. That means any trial could be a long way off and the Supreme Court could have the final say.
Federal Classified Documents Case (Florida)
In June 2023, Smith charged Trump with dozens of counts of withholding national security documents after leaving the White House and repeatedly obstructing U.S. efforts to recover the records.
U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the case in July after ruling that Smith’s appointment was unconstitutional. Trump’s appointee determined that Congress had not given Attorney General Merrick Garland the authority to appoint a private citizen as a special prosecutor. The government has appealed, arguing that the ruling departed from decades of legal tradition upholding the work of special prosecutors in high-profile criminal cases.
If Trump wins: As in the election fraud case, Trump would rush to get the Justice Department to dismiss the indictment, preventing the appeals court from being able to reinstate the case, as the government currently seeks.
If Trump loses: The Justice Department will continue trying to get an appeals court to revive the case. If that effort is successful, the case will move toward a possible trial that would include the risk of prison time.
Voter fraud case (state of Georgia)
In August 2023, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis filed her own lawsuit against Trump over the 2020 election based on Georgia state law. Georgia prosecutors charged more than a dozen Trump supporters, including attorney Rudy Giuliani, with participating in a scheme that violated the state’s racketeering law.
The case has also been suspended until an appeals court rules. whether Willis should be removed due to an affair with one of the prosecutors.
If Trump wins: Trump’s lawyers will likely seek to have the case dismissed on the grounds that continuing to prosecute Trump would interfere with their constitutional duties.
If Trump loses: If Willis is allowed to move forward with the case, it could move toward a possible trial. If Willis is removed, the case could be assigned to another prosecutor. Trump has also sought immunity based on the Supreme Court ruling, meaning he could still seek ways out of the case even if he loses the election.
