The Economist – Mexico City
In the first quarter of the year 2025 there was a direct investment flow of US $ 21,373 million, according to information released by Banco de México. This flow contrasts with the US $ 27,055 million that Mexico captured in the same period of the previous year.
In the detail of the collection of financial resources of the first quarter reported in The balance of payments, it can be seen that 77.8% of the total FDI, was recorded as a reinvestment of profits. This is US $ 16,647 million.
An important percentage, 14.69%, of the total captured in the period corresponds to transfers of accounts between companies.
And 7.42% of the FDI that entered between January and March this yearwhich is the first governance quarter of President Claudia Sheinbaum were new investments.
The president of the Business Coordinating Council, CCE, Francisco Cervantes He explained that reinvestments are also decisive to boost the growth of the gross domestic product, GDP.
And the subgovernor of the Bank of MexicoJonathan Heath has clarified that Utilities reinvestment is not a minor fact when used to expand the operation of companies in the country where they are generating their profits.
Apart from the Director of Economic Analysis at Banco Base, Gabriela Siller and the Chief of Mexican Securities, Bolsa Casa (Valmex), Gerónimo Ugarte Bedwell They warned that since 2021, 80% of the direct investment of the entire year is registered on average in the first quarter of each year.
Valmex expert anticipated that moderation at the entrance of productive capitals at the start of the year It can be a sign that we will have less direct investment than we observe in other episodes.
When reviewing the previous statistics, it can be seen that the entry of business investments in the first quarter of 2025 contrasts with The flow observed in the same period of 2024, when the arrival of US $ 26,378 million was recorded.
According to Banco Base, the direct investment entry observed between January and March of this year, It was lower in 21% to that observed in the same period last year
Increased proportion of new investments
When reviewing the statistical detail of the behavior of the new investments From the first quarter of last year, there is a slow but consistent progress.
In the first quarter of 2024, the Bank of Mexico RHe indicated the entrance of US $ 881 million in new investments. A flow that doubled for the same period from January to March of the year 2025.
If we see it trimester, it also shows an improvement, then represented an increase from US $ 1,220 million that entered the last quarter of 2024 and with this registry they became
The base bank expert clarified that the proportion of new investments captured in the first quarter of the year, which as It was already said it was 7.42%, it exceeded the one that represented in the same period of 2024, when it approached 6, 94% of the total.
Caution
Analysts from Banorte and Goldman Sachs received the results of foreign investment with caution for the prevailing uncertainty environment. In fact they warned that they remain attentive to new clashes.
Banorte experts stressed that before The volatility in the exchange observed in April, it can be anticipated that the adjustments will follow in the coming monthsespecially in the export of manufacturing products.
“This was observed in the significant prior accumulation of inventories with a period of relative calm in May As economic actors continue to adapt to new tariffs, greater waiting times and advances in specific negotiations”
From New York, Alberto Ramos, economist for Latin America in Goldman Sachs explained that The perspectives are affected by the persistence of isolationist policies that Mexico is applying, particularly in oil, gas and mining.
As well as “the perception that recent constitutional changes could lead to a weakening of institutional quality, such as the controversial judicial reform and changes that undermine the autonomy and independence of several regulatory agencies ”.
Added the uncertainty that Venera the result of the review of the commercial agreement with the United States.
