For the first time in more than a decade, Venezuelans are hopeful that they will have a chance at democracy.
The voters began lining up at polling stations across the country on Sunday morning to choose between President Nicolás Maduro, whose 11-year grip on power encompassed one of the worst humanitarian and economic crises in modern history, and a candidate who is not even on the ballot.
Former deputy María Corina Machado —whom the government of Maduro banned him from running for public offices— has gained popularity thanks to his calls to dismantle government controls over the economy, privatize the oil industry and reunite families torn apart by the exodus of 7.7 million Venezuelans. That has culminated in a powerful citizen movement that has not been seen in the country since the late Hugo ChavezMaduro’s mentor and idol, overthrew the political establishment in the late 1990s.
Machado has endorsed and been campaigning alongside his replacement candidate, former diplomat Edmundo González, 74, who is challenging Maduro, 61.
All eyes will be focused on the transparency and impartiality of the vote, especially after the United States reinstated costly sanctions over what it said were violations of an agreement for free elections. The presence of small missions from the Carter Center and the United Nations, Hundreds of local observers, as well as a network of approximately 30,000 volunteer witnesses, could play a key role in mitigating the risk of possible manipulation. Venezuela withdrew its invitation to observe the vote from a more robust group within the European Union.
It is hard to imagine Maduro giving up power, particularly given the repression the opposition party has suffered so far and a history of fraudulent elections. One of his biggest challenges will be to prove that the vote was fair enough to give him legitimacy with his people and the rest of the world. If Gonzalez wins, the biggest challenge will be orchestrating a peaceful transition of power in a government packed with Chavista supporters.
But whoever presides over Venezuela in the next six-year term will have to face an economic recovery secure sanctions relief on oil, the country’s main export and main source of income, and negotiate a $158 billion debt restructuring.
Maduro could succeed through a combination of biased electoral authority, intimidation and voter suppression. The government controls three of the five directors of the National Electoral Council, the most important of whom is its president, Elvis Amoroso, best known for disqualifying Machado, 56, from holding public office.
That’s why voter turnout will be crucial, according to Geoff Ramsey, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Center for Latin America.
“A landslide of votes” would make it “impossible” for the government to intervene, he said. However, the Maduro administration could use the low voter turnout to its advantage. They could use “clientelist networks and a general climate of intimidation to prevent the opposition from going out to vote””.
Of the 28 million citizens of Venezuela, More than 21 million are registered to vote, according to electoral authority figures. Turnout is expected to be similar to that of the 2012 and 2013 presidential elections, when abstention was around 20%.
A key bloc for Gonzalez, Venezuelans living abroad, will not be able to participate in the elections, leaving some 4.5 million registered voters on the sidelines. Absentee voting is only possible in countries that have diplomatic relations with Maduro’s government and requires updating data in the electoral registry. Those living in places like the United States or Canada can travel to vote, but most cannot afford to do so.
Unlike other recent elections, Maduro’s face appears on posters and billboards throughout the capital. Some are brightly colored, pop-art-style portraits of the president. In other cases, photos of students, the elderly and indigenous people are displayed above a message that reads: “Faith in our people, Maduro president.”
Gonzalez’s ads are rare, in part because of fear of retaliation for publishing or posting them. More than 100 people who supported Machado and González in some way were arrested this yearaccording to the non-profit organization Foro Penal.
Polling stations are expected to close around 6:00 p.m. local time.or until there are no more people waiting in line to cast their vote. Maduro has reiterated that the electoral authority is expected to announce preliminary results at 10:00 p.m.
If the government succeeds in staging a sham election, the loyalty of the armed forces will be key to quelling any protests or crises that arise from it. Maduro has handed over large and profitable sectors of the economy to the military, installing soldiers in key positions in the state oil companyl, Pdvsa, and enabled defense officials to oversee mining and ports.
Veronica, a Caracas resident who asked that her last name not be used for fear of being targeted by the government, said she was stocking up on essential items to prepare to stay home if tensions escalate after the vote.
““The anxiety that is experienced in Venezuela is not easy,” said the 22-year-old marketing student. “I am buying cans of tuna, eggs, products that do not expire quickly and even candles in case there is a power outage after the elections.”
On July 25, the official closing day of the election campaign, Maduro supporters gathered on the central Avenida Bolívar, where salsa bands played loudly and street vendors offered snacks and drinks, creating a festive atmosphere. This was the same place where Chávez spoke to a crowd in October 2012, closing out his last presidential campaign before dying of cancer the following year.
Many of those present said they were government employees, that they had been bused in from their offices, that they wore Maduro campaign T-shirts and that they had even been given food. Rina, a 26-year-old who asked that her last name not be used for fear of being targeted by the government, He was among those who said they had been forced to go to the demonstration but that they did not support Maduro’s re-election.
Others were enthusiastic about the president. “He has been enduring hardships since Chavez died,” said Apolinar Espinoza, 65, who works in a government recycling program. “Through thick and thin, he has been there, giving people what he can.”
Almost six kilometers away, Supporters of Machado and Gonzalez gathered on the sidewalks of Las Mercedes, a lively neighborhood east of the city centertrying to catch a glimpse of the opposition duo. As the caravan approached, people began shouting and raising their mobile phones to show their relatives and friends who had connected via video calls.
Mariana Tales, a 20-year-old nursing student, held a handmade sign that read “The Liberty Tour,” similar to Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour. She said she saw Gonzalez, 75, as a kindred spirit to the pop star and someone whose policies she hoped would allow her family living abroad to return home.
“I just want my family, and especially my father, to come back,” she said. “I want economic independence. I want to have electricity in my house.”
