There is no doubt that avoiding the most harmful effects of climate change requires phasing out coal-burning power plants, the largest source of carbon dioxide emissions. However, the opposite is happening.
Even though Earth’s temperatures are breaking new records and Scientists warn that the climate is reaching dangerous tipping points, The amount of coal consumed continues to grow. The underlying problem is simple: cWhenever the security of electricity supplies is called into question, the imperative to contain global warming is relegated to the background.
Coal dependency
Coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, is the largest source of electricity, accounting for 35% of global generation by 2023, according to Ember, a climate think tank. Natural gas comes in second with more than 22%, hydroelectric power contributes 14% and nuclear power another 9%. Still, it is a sign of progress.
Between 2006 and 2014, coal was the source of at least 40% of the world’s electricity generation, according to the International Energy Agency, a Paris-based organization of developed countries whose goal is to ensure the stability of the global market.
Developing countries value coal as a cheap and convenient source of energy that they can use to modernize their economies, just as Western nations did before them. In China and India, the two largest consumers, coal use has been growing for decades: together, they will account for two-thirds of global coal consumption in 2023, up from 35% in 2000.
This has largely offset the advances of industrialized countries, especially the US and Europe, in increasing renewable energy. And coal remains resilient in many Western countries, where expectations of continued growth in energy demand – driven largely by the electrification of personal transport and home heating and the rapid expansion of data centres – are delaying plans to retire coal-fired power plants.
Paradoxically, the drive towards energy neutrality is helping to sustain coal demand in the short term, since much of the manufacturing of products is done in China.
Consumption in the US and Europe has remained high
Coal has had a bumpy ride since the Covid-19 pandemic, when factories and offices closed, reducing demand for electricity. Natural gas producers cut output in response.
But when restrictions eased in 2021 and energy demand increased, Gas production took a while to restart and utilities turned to coal, always available, to keep the lights on.
Then came Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which prompted European sanctions. Russia began cutting off gas supplies to Europe, prompting the use of coal to fill the gap.
And starting in late 2023, utilities were caught off guard by the rapid growth in data center power consumption, especially energy-intensive applications such as artificial intelligence. This is expected to boost demand for coal.
China and India cut spending
The two most populous nations are facing increasing pressure to keep power flowing through the grid amid rising electricity use.
China is rapidly installing wind and solar power, and the country may soon reach peak coal consumption, but the fuel will continue to be used to balance intermittent renewable energy generation.
The country uses more than half of the world’s coal and In 2023 it accounted for 95% of the world’s new coal-fired power plant construction, But President Xi Jinping has promised that usage will peak in 2026.
India is also increasing its fleet of coal-fired power plants, with plans to add more capacity in fiscal 2025 than it has in nearly a decade. Coal supplies about three-quarters of the country’s electricity and the government expects it to remain the mainstay of the grid for at least another decade.
Other countries
At the end of 2023, at the annual United Nations climate conference held in Dubai, Envoys from nearly 200 countries have reached a historic agreement to abandon fossil fuels, including coal.
This was the first time negotiators agreed to address the root cause of climate change., although critics say the agreement has multiple loopholes that could hinder change.
Perspective
Researchers have confirmed that 2023 was by far the hottest year in the planet’s history. But the IEA expects coal demand to remain stable until 2025, after rising 2.6% to hit another record high in 2023.
World leaders will need to step up international efforts to curb coal consumption and meet the widely cited goal of “net-zero” global emissions by 2050. Net zero means that fossil fuel emissions are reduced to a point where other initiatives, such as planting trees or using technology to extract carbon dioxide from the air, offset what remains.
To achieve this by 2050, global coal use would have to fall by more than 90% and what’s left would have to be managed by plants capable of capturing and storing emissions, the IEA says.
