The Economist – Mexico City
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECDE, he reviewed his growth forecast for the Mexican economy for this year and for the nextconsidering that there may be a reduction in commercial uncertainty if a rapid renegotiation of the agreement with the United States is achieved.
Inside their economic outlook, they estimated that The Gross Domestic Product, GDP, from Mexico this year will reach a growth of 0.4%.
With this new expectation they leave behind the ghost of An economic contraction like the one they estimated themselves in March, when they expected a recession of 1.3% for the entire 2025.
In the chapter for Mexico of the report, they warned that “given the high exhibition that the country maintains with respect to the United States marketgrowth and inflation expectations remain uncertain. ”
Just last Wednesday, the Bank of Mexico, Banxico, cut its average growth forecast for the economy to 0.1% for this yearwhich is in a range that can go from -0.5% to 0.7%.
In the most recent survey of Citi, built among 34 analysts, considers that the Mexican economy will register a growth of 0.1%.
The members of the Board of Banco de México Government stressed that such a prognosis indicates a stagnation in the activity.
In the world update of forecasts made by the OECD, they consider that the economic activity of the United States will register a more pronounced deceleration in the face of uncertainty for Commercial policies and greater pressure pressures that would be linked to the increase in rates.
Thus, for the main trade partner of Mexico they anticipate a 1.6% growth for this year.
A deterioration that incorporates the effect of effective rates to its imports in retaliation from its commercial partners; greater economic uncertainty and “A significant deceleration of the arrival of immigrants that will have a significant impact on their workforce.”
The new growth forecast contrasts with 2.4% they achieved in GDP last yeara dynamic driven by private consumption and government spending.
It should be noted that in the chapters of each of the 54 countries to which they did their analysis, they dedicate at least one paragraph to identify the impact of US rates to which they are subject.
Mexico, commercial hope and scissors of spending
In the section for Mexico, they anticipate that inflation will register a variation of 3.4% at the end of the current year and 3.2% in 2026, Which means that with a stagnation in the economy, they expect convergence to the inflation target of 3% punctual, such as the one that Banxico anticipates next year.
The possibility that the economy does not fall into a contraction, from the perspective of the OECD, results from the forecast that consumption will remain animated by low unemployment and the decrease in inflation.
In the team of economists of The OECD foresees that a rebound in private investment can be presented, which could result from the gradual reduction of interest rates.
Despite the best forecast, they warn that public investment will remain moderate as part of the efforts to reduce The fiscal deficit, which anticipates the much better year than estimated by the Government, means 3.5% of the product.
The Sheinbaum administration promised to lower the deficit to 3.9% points from GDP from 4.9% of GDP that inherited from the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
For next year, they expect that Mexican GDP will achieve a 1.1% growth that contrasts with the 0.6% drop they also project in March.
This performance is exceeding 0.9% punctual who expects Banxico, but less than 1.5% that foresee the financial strategists consulted by CITI at the end of May.
This best performance will also result from the impulse that would grant United States, whom by the way, anticipate that it will continue to slow down until a 1.5% expansion in the GDP of 2026
The full report of The OECD was launched in the early hours of this Tuesday, June 3, from the headquarters of the entity, in Paris, France, by the Secretary General, Mathias Cormann.
