He retail dollar closed the wheel $1,430 after registering a drop of 5 pesos, while the wholesale exchange ratedetermined in the Free Exchange Market (MLC), decreased 6 pesos and ended in $1,406, almost 100 pesos from the upper limit of the exchange bands. Simultaneously, stocks and bonds they cut the bullish streak and the country risk rose for the second day in a row.
Calm spread in the exchange panorama. After touching $1,500 in the days after the legislative elections, the bill sold at Banco Nación fell by 70 pesos. The victory of the Government, added to the financial support of the United States, allowed the US currency to be stabilized.
In this sense, the wholesale segment approached $1,400 with a traded volume of USD 544 million. At the same time, it widened the distance with the ceiling of the exchange bands – today set at $1,502.48 – to 6.42%. This dynamic gives a respite to the international reserves of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), which is not forced to intervene to contain the exchange rate.
Although the supply of foreign currency from the agro-export sector was reduced due to the early settlement of USD 7,000 million in the run-up to the elections, the placement of debt by Argentine companies served as an alternative source of dollars. According to market sources, the Corporate debt would exceed USD 3 billion in the first thirteen days of November, which sustained exchange stability by providing flow to the Free Exchange Market (MLC).
“The incipient appreciation of the peso is explained by a change in expectations in the market after the elections and by the foreign exchange income via new issues of corporate debt“, he judged Ignacio Moralesfinancial analyst at Wise Capital.
“Argentine companies were involved in a boom in corporate debt issues after the legislative elections in October. YPF, Pluspetrol and Pampa Energía together placed USD 1.5 billion in the medium and long term in New York, with average rates close to 8%. Other companies such as Tecpetrol and TGS also accessed international markets, reflecting renewed investor confidence and greater access to credit. Although without the obligation to liquidate immediately, these operations could generate supply of dollars in the short spot market term,” listed a report from Aurum Valores.
On the other hand, the MEP dollar and the cash with settlement (CCL) rose between 5 and 13 pesos, reaching $1,458.13 and $1,483.73 respectively. As for the blueremained stable in $1,435.
Regarding the stock markets, the S&P Merval recorded a contraction of 3.4% in pesos and 3.6% in dollars. The behavior of the stock market was explained by the widespread red in the panel of leading stocks. With decreases of up to 8.2%As in the case of Aluar, profit-taking took precedence among investors. The aluminum producing company was supported by Banco Supervielle (-6.6%), Ternium (-6.2%) and Banco Macro (-5.3%). ADRs, Argentine papers listed on Wall Street, also showed decreases of up to 6.2%.
“Bonds and stocks today had a round of profit taking and, as we said, it seems that until there is more news about the exchange scheme and the purchase of reserves, the market will wait to pay again,” he evaluated. Nicholas Cappella, sales trader of the IEB Group, about the fall of local assets.
On the sovereign bonds side, the dynamic was similar: retractions of up to 1.1%. This negative evolution had a full impact on the country risk, which increased 11 units to 616 basis points. Despite this movement, the index prepared by JP Morgan showed a decline of more than 450 points from the 1,081 registered before the legislative elections.
For the economic team led by Luis Caputo, it is essential that the indicator falls and remains below the 500 units. If this scenario materializes, Argentina could return to the voluntary debt markets and refinance maturities with private bondholders, instead of paying in cash.
In relation to the international reserves of the Central Bank, experienced a slight increase of USD 11 million at the end of the day in USD 40,680 million. In the last few days, the holdings of the monetary authority remained the focus of the discussion, since the International Monetary Fund (IMF) He once again insisted on the need to accumulate dollars.
“In our discussions with the Argentine authorities, we have emphasized the need to accelerate reserve accumulation efforts to help better manage volatility and further strengthen market confidence,” he replied. Julie KozackIMF spokesperson, during the press conference this Thursday.
And he added: “The recent improvement in market conditions presents a window of opportunity for the authorities to strengthen macroeconomic policies, consolidate stability and accelerate the accumulation of reserves“.
Hours before, Caputo had referred to the topic of the moment by confirming that increasing the BCRA’s coffers is a priority objective of the economic program. “We are going to accumulate reserves and more than anyone may be thinking. Far from being something that we underestimate, it is a priority. Today, what is the accumulation of reserves is separated from what is the payment of our debts,” he stated during his participation in the 31st Industrial Conference of the Argentine Industrial Union (UIA).
A report from Max Capital reasoned that the purchase by the Central for hoarding “will put some upward pressure on the exchange rate“We believe that, if this dynamic persists, where inflation slows but does not immediately converge to 1% monthly, some adjustment in the exchange bands would end up being necessary towards the third quarter of 2026, unless the Government decides to maintain an exchange rate constantly close to the ceiling,” the report concluded.
