The Mexican government’s decision to grant diplomatic asylum to Betssy Chávez, former prime minister of Peru, has intensified the conflict between both countries. Although Foreign Minister Hugo de Zela confirmed the severing of diplomatic relations, he also clarified that consular ties remain, delimiting the scope of the institutional crisis.
However, this situation also raises doubts about the future of the commercial relationship, one of the most active between Latin American nations, and puts on the table the real volume of interests at stake.
Peru and Mexico have a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), officially known as the Trade Integration Agreement, which came into force on February 1, 2012. In addition, both countries participate in the Pacific Alliance, which includes Chile and Colombia, and both are part of other blocs such as APEC.
According to the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Tourism (MINCETUR), the commercial exchange between Peru and Mexico in 2024 it exceeded 2,507 million dollars. Despite reflecting a slight drop compared to the previous year, the bilateral flow left mixed signals.
While Peruvian exports added 888 million dollarsan unprecedented growth, imports from Mexico fell to 1,619 million dollarsgiving rise to a negative trade balance of –730 million dollars for the Peruvian side.
Bilateral trade is mainly explained by the participation of the agricultural sector, responsible for 49% of sales from Peru to Mexico. The impetus came from the prominence of products such as the mandarin, which grew 127% in value, and grapes, with an increase of 3.6%.
Official figures show that exports of cocoa, coffee and quinoa also rose, with increases of up to 488%while the metallurgical branch received a boost from copper derivatives. Exports from the chemical sector, which added 181% more in polymers, strengthened diversification. However, mining and textiles fell, with falls in 44% and 17% respectively.
On the import side, Mexico is a key supplier of consumer goods, machinery and chemicals to Peru. Purchases of appliances and vehicles from Mexico showed pronounced declines: imports of tractors fell 20%vehicles 16% and appliances 13%.
That same year, there were increases in agricultural foods and chemicals for consumption and home, with legumes and coffee extracts as notable products, according to figures consulted by Infobae Peru.
The business volume reveals a high degree of concentration in large operators. More than 865 Peruvian companies exported to Mexico in 2024, with the majority of large firms, including Technofil, Southern Peru Copper and Amazon Coffee Plantation. In the opposite direction, 2,623 companies made purchases in Mexico, led by multinationals such as Procter & Gamble.
Official data show that Mexico imports agricultural products for more than 41 billion dollars in 2024, but only a fraction corresponds to goods where Peru already has a presence, such as fresh fruits, olives and palm oil. A relevant segment remains uncovered by Peruvian exporters, in items such as beans, canned tomatoes and onions, where there are opportunities.
The case of the grape is paradigmatic: Mexico mattered 2,323 million dollars in fruits, and fresh Peruvian grapes represented 97% of that acquisition. The potential to expand the supply reaches industrial goods, chemical manufacturing and textiles, sectors in which Peruvian participation is still marginal.
At the macroeconomic level, Mexico has a Nominal GDP of 1.85 trillion dollars and an adjusted per capita of $25,074in front of the $289 billion and $17,895 per capita of Peru.
The recent economic growth in both countries, twinned as pre-Columbian cultures, contrasts with international competitiveness, which places Mexico in 56th place and Peru in 63rd, among 141 economies measured according to the Global Competitiveness Index.
Although the current political environment adds uncertainty to the trade route, consular channels remain open for private procedures and operations. Trade, despite the situation, maintains solid foundations and an agenda with a real opportunity for expansion in agroindustry, manufacturing and chemicals, for now.
