He Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) carried out in the last two weeks operations of swap of coins with the Treasury Department of USA, as reported on Saturday Infobae exclusively. The amount involved was almost USD 3 billionwithin the agreement enabled to exchange up to USD 20 billion. The objective of this maneuver was to restore dollars that the US official Scott Bessent had sold before the midterm elections and have funds to meet a recent payment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
According to information confirmed to this medium by anonymous sources with direct access to the operation, the operation left Argentina even further away from the reserve goal required by the IMF. The country should add more than USD 10 billion until December to be in line with that target.
The understanding between BCRA and the US Treasury was deployed in the midst of a situation of vulnerability of international reserves. The management of Javier Milei It gained a certain margin after the elections, although analysts warned of profound changes in the composition of assets and liabilities of the organization. No authority made official details about interest rates or deadlines for the return of funds. Both the BCRAlike the Ministry of Economy and the US Treasury, avoided responding to queries on the matter.
Scott BessentSecretary of the Treasury of the United States, intervened in the local peso market before the legislative elections on October 26. No specific data on volumes or results of the operation were released, although Infobae He specified that the amount was absorbed through a letter issued by the BCRA, whose returns and conditions were not transparent. The Argentine Government also did not issue statements regarding these movements. For its part, Bessent stated: “The Argentine economic bridge generates profits for the American people,” without specifying the nature of such benefits.
Looking to the immediate future, the BCRA informed investors of its intention to restart the purchase of reserves next year, conditional on the evolution of the demand for money in the local market. The priority is to keep the dollar within the established bands and allow some recovery of the peso.
Private consultants describe new perspectives on the scope of the maneuver. Eco Go He highlighted that the Government “began to dismantle the dollar control devices, gave greater liquidity to the market and facilitated an outlet for the United States Treasury” after the election. Two particularly relevant aspects in this scenario were the activation of the swap and the reduction in short-term interest rates, to reestablish credit without overflowing the dollar above the floating bands. The consulting firm highlighted the decrease in the supply of commercial dollars, after the advance of USD 7 billion for the harvest that allowed us to reach the electoral process.
The weekly balance of BCRA showed the progressive reduction of the peso position of the Treasury of USA: the bills in national currency fell in USD 1.9 billion during the last week of October, while other liabilities rose in USD 2.8 billionpossibly linked to the payment of interest to the IMF. The appearance of this new short-term liability, generated by the swap, moved away from the reserve goal: the objective with the IMF was within reach. USD 10.2 billion away, when a month ago the gap was USD 6.1 billion. Eco Go He emphasized that, although there were purchases of reserves, the distance with the agreed objective grew.
The drop in rates, especially the remuneration of the simultaneous round at 22% TNA, affected short-term instruments. For Eco Gothe Government managed “strongly decompress interest rates, begin to lengthen the terms of the debt in pesos and reestablish the peso box that had been decimated“, while the official dollar was around 1,450 pesos and the futures markets evolved within the expected limits until December.
The prospects for dollar accumulation They depend, fundamentally, on income from agricultural exports and the issuance of debt by companies. Eco Go highlighted the placement of YPF (USD 500 million) and other planned operations, which could allow the BCRA rebuild reserves and recover part of the liquidity lost during the campaign.
For LCGthe focus after the electoral euphoria quickly shifted to the accumulation of reserves: “The reserves total USD 40.26 billion” and the increase in 878 million Compared to the previous Friday, it was due to the restitution of reserve requirements at the end of the month. In the nine rounds after the elections, the daily average reflected a drop of USD 100 millionan amount that includes the payment of interest to the IMF, but not the rescue of the dollars used by Bessent before the elections. According to the consulting firm, the bill in pesos issued by the BCRA to absorb US Treasury funds migrated towards the activation of the swap, generating a new liability of at least USD 2 billion. This mechanism increased short-term dollar debt under conditions not yet reported and reduced the US Treasury’s exposure to the exchange rate.
Regarding the solidity of the reserves, LCG warned that, if the USD 14 billion sent by the IMF, the level of net reserves barely changes compared to the beginning of the administration, showing a red USD 12.5 billion. According to the methodology agreed with the organization, the gap with respect to the revised goal for December is USD 8.5 billion.
Lambda Consultants He stressed that the current exchange rate stability depends on low official intervention and the arrival of capital that allows the reserves to be reinforced without forcing the exchange rate. The Treasury had to face payments for USD 851 million to the IMF without the necessary funds, so the BCRA had to cover the deficit. The weekly balance showed that since October 23 the stock of “Other Letters and Notes in National Currency“fell into USD 1,862 millionwhile “Other Liabilities” increased USD 2,755 millionpointing out a transfer of liabilities from pesos to dollars in the short term, with a possible negative impact on the calculation of net reserves under the IMF criterion.
The consultant indicated that, considering the Special Drawing Rights (SDRs)gross reserves totaled USD 5,192 million at the end of October, while net reserves, excluding specific maturities, resulted in USD 3.13 billion. In recent days, the Treasury added USD 64 million with purchases supported by an official exchange rate of 1,457.4 pesosand a spot that closed in 1,482 pesosequivalent to a weekly advance of 2.6%.
Meanwhile, the Central Bank has already notified investors that it expects to resume purchasing reserves starting next year, subject to a recovery in demand for money in the local market. The objective is to keep the dollar within the bands and encourage the appreciation of the peso, while waiting for the return to international debt markets.
He country risk yesterday it pierced the barrier of 600 basis points, values that had not been seen since mid-January. The reaction came after it emerged over the weekend that the Government will buy back bonds throughout the entire maturity curve, news that gave an additional boost to sovereign debt, even though it was denied by official sources.
