The National Federation of Merchants (Fenalco) presented a balance of Colombian trade at the end of the third quarter of 2025. Although the results show a moderate recovery after two difficult years, the union warned about the risks facing the sector due to the increase in operating costs, insecurity, and political and regulatory uncertainty.
According to the most recent Fenalco Economic Log, 36% of entrepreneurs reported an increase in sales during September 2025 compared to the same month in 2024. However, 39% indicated that sales remained stable and 25% reported a decrease.
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“The third quarter of the year closed in an acceptable manner. Some sectors have recovered and others have lagged behind,” said the president of the union, Jaime Cabal during the installation of Góndola 2025 in Cartagena.
The report highlights that, although commercial activity shows signs of recovery, lags persist in categories such as alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, fuels and clothing, which have not yet taken off.
“Although commercial activity shows signs of recovery after two difficult years, we cannot ignore that this rebound occurs despite the Government and not thanks to it. It is the businessmen, with their efforts, who keep the pulse of the economy in the face of an adverse environment,” the leader emphasized.
One of the main challenges facing commerce is the increase in operating costs, driven by factors such as deteriorating road infrastructure, landslides and recurring blockages. “The labor and tax burdens, added to the higher logistics costs due to the poor condition of the roads, landslides and recurring blockages, could be transferred to the final consumer with price increases towards the end of the year”warned the president of Fenalco.
Given this scenario, many business owners opted for promotion and discount strategies to rotate inventories and prepare for the end of year season. In addition, the adoption of technologies such as artificial intelligence allowed companies to optimize processes, reduce costs and improve inventory management.
Likewise, the climate of uncertainty generated by the Labor and Health Reform, the fiscal situation and political tensions, especially with the United States, slowed down investment decisions in the sector. “Alarm bells are going off in the face of the political uncertainty that has manifested itself in relation to the poor management of international relations by Petro and his government and, of course, the expectation of what the electoral scenario will be like next year,” Cabal stated.
The Economic Log also highlights that 39% of the businessmen consulted expect a better economic situation for the next six months, while 47% consider that the general situation of the economy and business will remain the same and 14% foresee a worsening.
Insecurity became one of the main concerns for merchants. 52% of businessmen consider that operating in the country today is “unsafe” and 34% rate it as “very unsafe.” In total, 86% of business owners perceive that the public order situation has deteriorated. “86% described the insecurity situation that affects their businesses, that affects their businesses, and that affects their companies as serious or very serious,” highlighted Cabal.
Despite the challenges, the Colombian economy shows improvement compared to the previous two years. The expected growth for this year stands at around 2.6%, after a languid increase of 0.6% and 1.7% in 2023 and 2024, respectively. The Economic Monitoring Index (ISE) calculated by Dane has grown 2.7% so far this year. Employment is growing timidly and inflation, although still far from the target of less than 4%, remains relatively stable.
Cabal recognized the role of the Bank of the Republic in preserving the purchasing power of the currency and highlighted the work of businessmen as the engine of the economy. “Entrepreneurs, managers, are contributing more to promoting the current economy than the public sector,” stated Jaime Cabal.
Fenalco’s report also highlights the importance of innovation and adaptation in modern retail. Artificial intelligence, automation and digital transformation are driving competitiveness and efficiency in the sector. Furthermore, the reinvention of commercial formats and the integration of physical and digital experiences are key to responding to new consumer habits.
