The Spanish economy becomes an oasis among the great world powersimmune to the deceleration of which the International Monetary Fund warns as a result of the commercial war promoted by the US, one of the largest victims of its own protectionist policy, according to the latest forecasts.
Spain will grow 2.5% this year and become the advanced economy that will grow the most this year, even ahead of the United States, that will not advance more than 1.8% after a strong slowdown as a result of the commercial war initiated by its president, Donald Trump. In addition, among the great world economic powers, our country is the only one that has been fought from the generalized cut in the forecasts that periodically updates the International Monetary Fund, IMF.
The global economy enters a phase of strong deceleration due to the impact of the commercial war unleashed by the White Houseas well as an increase in geopolitical risks, which have led the levels of uncertainty to records from the Cold War and threaten to truncate the slow path of the recovery initiated after the pandemic.
World GDP will advance this year 2.8%, half a percentage point less than the IMF estimated just three months ago, As a consequence of the rapid worsening of the commercial map and the extension of armed conflicts, especially in reference to Ukraine and Palestine. That is the main conclusion that emerges from the last report on economic perspectives 2025, presented today by the agency in Washington DC.
It is precisely in this context in which Spain emerges practically as the only one of the great advanced economies that dodges the IMF cuts. Moreover, it rises two tenths, of 2.3% that was expected in January, to 2.5% that show the new calculations.
Why this situation? In a commercial war, industrial and highly exporting economies suffer to a greater extent. What until recently was a disadvantage, now benefits Spain, whose economy is more focused on services, especially tourism. Precisely, the pull of this sector is what has promoted the forecasts of the IMF, in addition to the dynamism of the labor market and the execution of European funds, which have contributed to sustaining domestic demand.
Facing next year, GDP growth would be moderated up to 1.8%, in line with the expected standardization of the economic cycleas explained from the organism led by Kristalina Georgieva.
Despite its good relative position in Spain, the IMF also identifies risks that could affect our economy. For example, the report indicates that high exposure to tourism leaves the country vulnerable to possible new external disturbances; and inflation remains above the objectives set by the European Central Bank. In addition, the house is maintained as a source of tension, with price increases and credit increase.
In fiscal matters, although Spain has reduced its deficit in recent years, the body warns of the risk of deviations if a consolidation policy is not maintained. The aging of the population, energy dependence and poor productivity remain unresolved structural challenges.
The Eurozone, lagging behind
The Spanish case contrasts with that of the Eurozone assembly, whose growth forecast by 2025 is limited to 0.8%, two tenths less than what was calculated in January. Countries like Germany or France, until now growth engines, show signals of stagnation, while Italy will barely advance 0.4%.
The IMF attributes this weak performance to the exhaustion of domestic consumption, the energy ballast – especially in the most industrialized economies – and an external demand that loses strength in the middle of the commercial war.
However, Europe is not the worst stop leaves the IMF reviews, since the greatest cut between advanced economies has been reserved for the United States, which goes from a growth of 2.7% to 1.8%, that is, nine tenths less. Due to this strong fall, Spain goes to the first position and advances in growth to the greatest economic power in the world. It will also be above 2026 if the forecasts are met.
USA, which had been the world economic engine in recent years, with a rapid recovery from the pandemic, It will especially suffer this year a strong slowdown, although without recession, due to the commercial policy promoted by Trump since it swore the position as president at the end of January.
Although the IMF is being especially careful with its criticism of Trump, which is only mentioned once in the entire report (When reference is made to the first executive order signed on February 1 to approve the first tariffs to China, Canada and Mexico), it recognizes that the cut in forecasts is practically exclusively due to “greater political uncertainty, to commercial tensions and weaker demand perspectives, given a slower consumption growth than expected.”
Translated into analysts’ words: The deterioration of business confidence and the increase in production costs will include household economywhich will have to face new inflationary pressures.
In fact, the first symptoms are already beginning to be noticed. Private consumption, which has been the main engine of growth in the United States in recent years, slowed in the first months of 2025, while high interest rates and commercial uncertainty have cooled investments. Although unemployment remains at relatively low levels, the IMF warns of the exhaustion of the fiscal margin and the side effects of the strong fluctuations of the dollar.
The cost for the US is even greater than for China, its main rival in this war after several weeks of cross attacks and commercial barriers on both sides of the Pacific. The IMF has reviewed the growth of GDP in six tenths of the second largest economy on the planet, which this year will be recorded 4%, practically the same as in 2026.
