In northern China, the temperature on the roads has reached 70 ° C (158 ° F). In the Central Valley of California, temperatures reach the three Fahrenheit digits. In much of Spain, Mercury has risen so that it is causing warnings for tourists. These temperatures are a clear sample of the climate challenges that are coming.
Weeks before the official summer start in the northern hemisphere, indications begin to emerge that the next months will be scorching in North America, Europe and Asia. There is even the possibility that the season breaks world records of maximum temperatures, said Daniel Swain, a climatologist at the University of California in Los Angeles. These extreme heat projections concern health and energy authorities.
Abrasing conditions threaten to overload the electrical networks, wither the crops and shoot energy prices on three continents. The warm and dry climate also increases the risk of forest fires, with fires already in Alberta, epicenter of the Canadian oil industry. The human and economic consequences are nefarious: extreme heat is expected to cause annual losses of about US $ 200,000 million in the US for 2030, a figure that will be far duplicated by 2050, according to an estimate.
The three continents of the North face suffocating temperatures driven by climate change, particularly the west and center of the US and Canada, as well as western and northern Europe, Swain said. Since a warmer atmosphere retains more moisture, these regions will also experience areas of heavy rains and floods, he added. “I would expect to see more cases of torrential rains and extreme floods or record in regions prone to strong rainfall during the warm season,” said Swain.
In the Atlantic, the heat is raising the temperature of the ocean, which increases the probability of an unusually active hurricanes season. The absence of El Niño, a warming of the Equatorial Pacific that can cause devastating winds in the Atlantic, also implies that more hurricanes and tropical storms could be formed and grow in the Atlantic and the Caribbean, including the oil and gas producing areas along the American coast of the Gulf of Mexico. These phenomena could seriously affect coastal infrastructure and supply chains.
Due to the curves in the summer jet current, there is a growing probability of rights, broad arches of severe electric storms that can travel hundreds of miles and cause billions of dollars in damages, in the west medium and the northern plains, said Paul Pastelok, the main prosticator of the US long -range. UU. In Accuweather Inc. This agitation throughout the continent can also leave the Gulf coast, particularly Texas, vulnerable to more hurricanes.
The suffocating heat will increase energy demand. According to the North American Electrical Reliability Corporation (North American Electric Reliability Corp), about 89 million people in three electrical networks that cover parts of the US center. UU. They run a high risk of electric supply cuts this summer. It is likely that energy prices on the network, which extends from Chicago to the Middle Atlantic region, increase with sustained heat due to low coal reserves, wrote Bank of America analysts, led by Francisco Blanch, in a note to their customers.
The increase in the price of natural gas in the US has been moderated so far, despite the heat perspective and the increase in exports of this fuel for electrical plants to Europe and Asia. However, the probabilities that gas reaches US $ 4.60 per million British thermal units this year, an increase of more than 30 % with respect to current levels, they are increasing, since heat could limit the increase in reserves, which prepares the market for a rebound before the demand for winter heating, according to RBC analysts of Capital Markets, run by Christopher Louney. The impact on natural gas prices could be significant worldwide.
Extreme heat also threatens to wilt the crops and dry the rivers, which raises food prices, since the cost of goods and services remains elevated. Drought has intensified in US areas where soybeans, corn or wheat are grown. If the drought persists, the water level of the Mississippi river could descend, which would disturb the traffic of barges, crucial for the transport of crops throughout the country. This would affect the stability of agricultural prices in global markets.
Dry Europe
Throughout Europe, the continent that warms the fastest in the world, the shortage of rainfall and premature drying have prepared the scenario for intense heat waves, droughts and dangerous conditions of forest fire, they say commercial meteorologists and government forecasting. The effects of these phenomena will be felt throughout the European economy.
Forecast models favor the appearance and persistence of high pressure meteorological patterns this summer, similar to those that whipped the continent during the first months of the year. These patterns reduced the speed of wind and cloudiness, which caused a low wind generation and record energy in Europe, a scenario that will probably be repeated this summer, according to Atmospheric G2. It is likely that high pressure also blocks the humidity of the North Atlantic Ocean, increasing the risk of heat waves and worsening the drought, said Andrew Pedrini, a meteorologist of the meteorological analysis firm.
“Personally, I fear that this summer we will hear a lot of extremes,” he said. Last week, in Portugal and Spain, one of the hottest air masses in more than three decades arrived from Africa, causing temperatures above 38 ° C. The heat occurs after a blackout on April 28 left the Iberian Peninsula without electricity for hours, affecting public transport, telecommunications and other services.
With high pressure isolating the regions of the refreshing effect of wet winds in the west, temperatures in the center and southern Europe could rise considerably. While this pattern is expected to reduce the chances of rain, the increase in heat could aggravate the storms that are formed, with torrential rains and harmful hail. These phenomena could generate even more problems for economy and security.
Although water levels in the Rin river have improved after the rains of recent weeks, a recurrence of drought could alter a crucial commercial route and shoot the rates of the barges. This would affect European exports and imports, keys to the industry.
Long -term forecast models show that conditions could favor heavy rains in western Norway and the north of the United Kingdom between June and August, according to data from the European satellite program Copernicus. These extreme climatic changes will test the infrastructure and resilience of these regions.
Asia perspectives
In Asia, Japan will probably have a warmer summer normal, according to the Japan weather agency. Southeast Asia will also be hotter than the average, according to the Specialized Meteorological Center of ASEAN. Extreme temperatures will have a direct impact on productivity and health.
It is expected that China, with the exception of some areas of the north end, also suffer droughts this June, according to the Chinese weather administration. The drought in the north of the country has affected wheat harvest during a key growth period, threatening the production of this basic cereal, just when Beijing remains engaged in a commercial war with the US, an important supplier of agricultural products. This could increase commercial tensions and food insecurity.
Although rains are forecast in the region, which will provide some relief to the dry agricultural fields, the rapid change from dry to humid climate increases the risk of floods, landslides and damage to crops. These climatic oscillations complicate mitigation and adaptation efforts.
The intense heat in some areas of China has already triggered the asphalt temperature. The National Energy Administration foresees that the maximum electricity demand is about 100 Gigavatians up to this summer to last year, which would be equivalent to having to turn on all the electricity plants of the United Kingdom at the same time. The pressure on electrical networks could lead to prolonged blackouts.
Throughout the northern hemisphere, the extreme heat reflects how much warmer the earth is compared to a few decades, Swain said. Since 1959, Europe in particular, but also parts of the northwest of the Pacific, the northeast of Canada, as well as parts of Mexico, Africa and the Middle East, have experienced a marked increase in summer heat. “An increase in heat extremes is the most obvious symptom of climate change,” said Karen McKinnon, a teacher who studies the statistics of climate change in UCLA. “Even seemingly small changes in temperature, of a few degrees, can make summers feel considerably more extreme.”
