First: Israel has set a goal that is neither easy nor realistic: ending Hamas. She has killed 8,000 combatants and still has another twenty thousand at least left. It is not easy because they blend in with a population that despite everything prefers them to the Israelis, and it is not realistic either because Hamas is more than its military arm and blends into the social structure of Gaza, where it has ruled since 2006. Israel has already tried to end the PLO since 1967 and today it governs in Ramallah, twenty kilometers from Jerusalem.
Second: Neither Israel nor the world can abandon the hundreds of innocent hostages still held by Hamas, in what constitutes a war crime. Releasing them is a priority because without their return home there is no possibility of putting the weapons to rest.
Third: Israel has entered a conflict without foreseeing a clear solution. There is a lot confusion over what to do with Gaza the day after, while calls grow from the most extremist Israeli ministers to annex it and expel the Palestinians, an ethnic cleansing that the world cannot consent to.
Quarter: The Gaza conflict is metastasizing because Israel has nothing less than 7 open fronts: Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and by interposed actors Iran itself; In the West Bank, soldiers and settlers have killed a couple of hundred Palestinians, thus fueling the proliferation of what for some will be martyrs of the resistance and for others brutal terrorists. Lebanon is potentially more dangerous because Hizbollah is much stronger than Hamas (150,000 missiles). The assassination in Beirut of senior officials of Hamas and Hizbollah itself has unleashed a rain of missiles on Israel and forced the evacuation of 150,000 people on both sides of the border, in an unsustainable situation in the medium term for both parties. In Syria and Iraq pro-Iranian militias attack American bases…
Fifth: Tehran tries to keep a low profile because it fears that someone will take advantage of the troubled river to settle accounts, since there is no shortage of wins. He discreetly makes progress in uranium enrichment (the nuclear risk grows) while the Islamic State provokes him with a brutal terrorist attack in Kerman. The Iranian front is the most worrying because although it claims not to want to go to war, it is in solidarity with Hamas and has just hijacked an oil tanker next to Oman.. Washington has sent two naval air groups to the area to calm things down while Blinken and Borrell try to reduce tension.
Sixth: The Houthis, Iranian pawns, attack shipping in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb and force traffic between Asia and Europe to avoid Suez and go around Africa, skyrocketing freight prices. The US has formed a coalition to defend freedom of navigation in which Spain has refused to participate, irritating Washington. Our government must have good reasons but it should explain them. Tension has risen lately with the Anglo-American bombing of Houthi positions in Yemen.
Seventh: The Israeli-Palestinian problem is a cancer that overwhelms the Middle East region and that cannot be left in their hands because since 1948 they have proven to be absolutely incapable of solving it. But imposing a solution from outside (Borrell) without strong North American involvement does not seem possible either.
Eighth: the Palestinians have the right to their State alongside Israel (Madrid 1991, King Felipe VI) but its implementation is very difficult and Israel does not want it.
Ninth: the death of so many civilians, especially women and children in Gaza is doing a lot of damage to Israel’s image (accused of genocide before the ICJ) and also from the United States, which appears to support without nuance the disproportionate Israeli response.
Tenth: Biden began his term by withdrawing from Afghanistan and ends it with open conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza that do not suit him with a view to the November elections. Everyone criticizes his policy with Gaza, his low popularity (38%), and tension grows with Israel, which ignores him.
Eleventh: If Washington wanted, Israel would declare a ceasefire tomorrow and lower the tension. It would be enough to stop sending him weapons and bombs. But American domestic policy prevents it.
Twelfth: the Gaza crisis is a gift for Putin in Ukraine. Seeing the United States mired in the Middle East also gives satisfaction to Russia and China.