The US oil production would fall until the mid-2030s, with global benchmarks trading below US$70 per barrel until 2030, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday in its “Annual Energy Outlook” report.
The United States would produce between 12.4 and 12.7 million barrels per day of crude oil by 2050, compared to 13.6 million bpd in 2025, and that the Permian basin represents the majority of onshore pumping.
The National producers will also have to face a decrease in the supply of drilling land premium.
As prime drilling locations offering the best return on capital become depleted, lCompanies will move to less profitable areas for drilling due to higher costs and lower recovery rates.
Depending on the price, Those locations may become increasingly unprofitable, weighing down overall production.
HE estimates that the consumption of oil and other liquids will decrease between 11% and 23% in 2050 compared to 2025, mainly due to the increased use of electric vehicles, according to the EIA.
Brent crude futures will trade below US$70 per barrel until 2030, which will cause a decline in US crude oil production until the mid-2030s. Brent is currently trading around US$95 due to the war with Iran.
By the end of the 2030s, Brent crude oil prices will rise above US$75 per barrel, driving an increase in crude oil production through most of the 2040s, although production is expected to fall again in 2050.
It is expected that US crude oil exports are between 3.3 and 4.7 million bpd, which will represent between 25% and 33% of the country’s crude oil production in 2050, according to the EIA.
HE Global natural gas demand expected to increase significantly, boosting U.S. dry natural gas production to 133 billion cubic feet per day and 151 billion cubic feet per day by 2050, compared to 107 billion cubic feet per day in 2025.
The reporte published a day after the United States agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, lor that has caused oil prices to fall below US$100 for the first time since April 2. The EIA has indicated that it has not taken the ceasefire into account in its forecasts.
