President Gustavo Petro reignited the debate on the country’s energy future by warning that Ecopetrol’s model faces structural limits of profitability.
In an extensive statement, the president maintained that Colombia cannot continue discussing only the increase in crude oil production, but must focus on its real profitability. “We not only have to talk about how to increase Ecopetrol’s production, but also about its profitability,” he stated.
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Petro explained that the drop in profitability per well is not mainly due to administrative factors. Although he insisted that “administrative expenses must be reduced, especially the salaries of the leadership,” he stressed that “the fundamental cost is operational.”
In his diagnosis, crude oil extraction has physical and economic limits: “An oil well has diminishing returns because the deeper it is, the more expensive it is to extract oil; the oil that is depleted in the well is non-renewable.”
For the president, basing the economy on oil is insisting on an exhausted model.
“Basing an economy on oil, as Gaddafi, Chávez or the Saudi king did, is basing it on diminishing returns in the face of growing social demands,” he said, emphasizing that the enormous oil rents of the past arose “not from the productivity of the fields, but from monopoly mechanisms.” He recalled that “OPEC was made for that, and to break that, violent invasions were made.”
One of Petro’s most compelling points was his pointing out the Permian project in the United States, which he considers a bad deal for the country. “Why is Permian not profitable for Ecopetrol? Because more gas comes out every year. It may be profitable for US companies, but not for Ecopetrol,” he said.
According to the president, the accelerated decline forces constant drilling: “In the Permian, each well is increasingly more expensive and less profitable, and this is happening more rapidly than in other fields.” He added that the phenomenon is also observed in Colombia: “What happens in the Permian happens, more slowly, in other fields in the country.”
Petro explained that production grows only at the beginning of the well cycle: “The growth of production per well occurs in the first years; then it decreases. That is why in a field like Permian, dozens of new wells have to be opened per year.” That investment, he added, “is made with the profits that do not reach the country; Colombia pays for that investment.”
Faced with proposals that propose using fracking, he was blunt: “They will say that then fracking should be used; a huge mistake. This is precisely what happens in the Permian: fracking takes out the oil faster and it decreases faster.”
He also criticized the sectors that demand more exploration. “The opposition thinks that the solution is to explore more. That is to spend more at greater risk,” he stated, and pointed to the case of the offshore field in Texas: “There they lose 1.2 billion dollars a year. No journalist will tell you that because it was Duque’s business.”
The president assured that oil and coal prices will continue to decline in the medium term. “There will be less demand, especially for heavy crude oils such as those from Colombia and Venezuela,” which will limit future investment. “Oil investment’s years are numbered; there will only be investment in low-cost, short-term projects,” he insisted.
For Petro, the way out is clear: “What must be done is what the Arabs do: immediately move to clean energy, economic branches of biodiversity, artificial intelligence projects, knowledge, food or drinking water. There is profitability and life.”
The president also criticized Congress for not allowing Ecopetrol to lead that transition. “He was not able to allow Ecopetrol to generate clean energy for the country, because it was taking care of the cartel of the electric generators that are defrauding the people,” he accused.
Petro announced that it will present Permian’s updated financial picture: “According to 2025 data, the initial investment made by Ecopetrol and the subsequent purchase of Oxy will no longer be recovered.” He assured that the company will have to “invest more and more money in the US to avoid red numbers, without recovering the investment.”
He even posed a geopolitical scenario: “If the US invades Venezuela and appropriates the oil frozen in the wells, the supply of heavy crude oil will increase and international prices will fall even further.” In that case, he warned: “You can already imagine what will happen to Ecopetrol, although they will blame me.”
Petro’s warnings coincide with a persistent deterioration in Ecopetrol’s figures. In the third quarter of 2025, the company reported profits of $2.56 billion, a drop of 29.8% compared to the same period last year. In the accumulated January-September, profits total $7.5 billion, 32% less than in 2024.
Quarterly revenue fell 13.8% and Ebitda fell to $12.3 billion, with a margin of 41.3%. Average production of 751,000 barrels per day remained stable, supported by fields such as Caño Sur and operations in the Permian itself.
