Norwegian Nobel Peace Prize authorities are investigating reports that online betting on this year’s winner skyrocketed overnightsuggesting a possible leak.
The bets on the Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for her fight for democracy, rose sharply on the Polymarket betting site shortly after midnight Norwegian time, according to information posted on its website. The five-member reserved committee had made its decision on Monday, according to local media.
“We take this very seriously,” Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, said by phone. “It appears we have fallen prey to a criminal actor seeking to make money from our information.”
One bettor, under the username dirtycup, wagered about $70,000 on Machado’s victory just hours before the decision was officially announced.. That investor, who had opened his account at Polymarket this month and had never used it for other markets, made a profit close to US$30,000, according to data published on Polymarket’s website.
The story was first reported by local newspapers Aftenposten and Finansavisen. Three Polymarket accounts that bet mainly on Machado achieved a combined profit of about US$90,000, according to Finansavisen.
Polymarket obtained an investment of US$2 billion this week from Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, in an operation that valued the company at about US$8 billion.
The platform allows users to bet on outcomes of real-world events, ranging from sports matches and economic decisions to the most played song from Taylor Swift’s latest album. It has been criticized in the past for offering markets in ethically questionable areas, such as betting on the death of Pope Francis.
A Polymarket spokesman declined to comment.
In major prediction markets, traders buy “yes” or “no” depending on the outcome of an event. The buying and selling volume of these instruments determines the implied probability—and therefore the price—of each outcome at any given time.
Polymarket agreed in 2022 with regulators to stop operating with users in the US, since it was not registered as a stock exchange. A week after the 2024 presidential election—on which Polymarket users bet more than $3 billion—the apartment of its founder, Shayne Coplan, was raided by FBI agents.
After Trump came to power, the federal investigation was shelvedalthough Polymarket still does not allow US residents to open on its website.
Harpviken, of the Nobel Institute, stated that he does not remember similar incidents related to the peace prize, although he did “some leaks” about 15 years ago, “when more people had information about the winners before the announcement.”
“We are going to analyze this carefully to find out what happened,” he added. “Secret is very important to us.”
