President Daniel Noboa will face the campaign for the next referendum and popular consultation in Ecuador with a significant advantage: there is no solid partisan opposition to confront him. His movement, National Democratic Action, ADN, benefits from the weakness of traditional political organizations, which are going through a moment of fragmentation, loss of influence and lack of leadership.
The main opposition force, Revolución Ciudadana, is going through a complex moment. After having dominated the legislative scene for years, it has seen its representation reduced, faces internal divisions, cases of corruption and the retirement of historical figures. Other traditional parties, such as the Social Christian Party or Pachakutik, are also weakened and reduced to symbolic structures, while many smaller movements did not even exceed 1% of the votes in the last presidential elections.
The official referendum campaign will take place between November 1 and 13. During that period, participating organizations must distribute a fund of US$209,080 approved by the National Electoral Council, which means that each trend (“Yes” or “No”) will have approximately half of that budget. However, the government has already begun to promote its proposal through official events, and in the digital sphere advertising activity in favor of the “Yes” vote has been detected from recently created accounts. Additionally, social media spending lacks strict controls, allowing various actors to participate without oversight.
The social context also represents a challenge. The electorate shows signs of fatigue after multiple electoral processes in a short period, and discontent has grown due to unpopular decisions such as the elimination of the diesel subsidy, which provoked protests with a militarized response and complaints of human rights violations. This environment of citizen distrust could be the main obstacle for the Executive, even more than the political parties.
In short, Noboa comes to the process with the opposition fragmented and unable to articulate a cohesive bloc, but faces the challenge of a disenchanted electorate. With a political and media structure that supports their proposal, the real dispute could take place not against weakened parties, but against the social disaffection surrounding the referendum.
