The Economist – Mexico City
Amid the criticisms of US President Donald Trump for the commercial imbalances of his country, The balance in favor of Mexico amounted to US $ 171,809 million last year.
The trade surplus of Mexico With the US, recorded record in 2024, growing at an interannual rate of 12.7% and reach US $ 171,809 million.
This trend acquires greater relevance because the US president, Donald Trump, intends to Generate internal public policies or negotiations with third countries to reduce the negative balance of the US in its commercial product balance.
Considering its trade with everyone, imports of products to the US were US $ 3.3 billion in 2024, YLexports from this same country totaled almost US $ 2.1 billion, which threw a deficit of around US $, 2 million, a negative balance that grew 14% at an annual rate.
After his possession, Trump signed the memorandum of America First Commercial Policy, which identifies a series of actions that must be completed before April 1, 2025, including that of Investigate the causes of the “commercial deficits of US goodsas well as the national and national security implications and risks resulting from such deficits, “and recommend” response measures. “
US trade with Mexico and Canada It represents almost 30% of imports in the country, which makes this relationship an objective for the nationalist agenda of President Trump.
Trump has criticized the countries with which the US has a large commercial deficit, arguing that the country is in a disadvantage situation that needs to be corrected by tariffs. However, according to JP Morgan, The elasticity of replacement of many of the main US imports of Mexico and Canada is lower than the average, which means that possible tariffs would probably lead to higher internal prices.
In 2024, USA recorded deficits in its product trade of US $ 63,336 million with Canada and US $ 295,402 million with China. Besides, He had negative balances with Vietnam, India, Taiwan, Korea from the south and the European Union at record levels.
From the perspective of JP Morgan, although commercial deficits are central to Trump’s criticism to Canada and Mexico, there are other issues in each bilateral relationship that will be key to monitor in case the North American Free Trade Agreement (T-MEC) It is used, as happened, as a lever to address non -commercial concerns.
Trump He has criticized Canada’s agency on US military supportadvocating for sharing costs. In his previous administration, he also criticized the management system for the supply of dairy products in Canada, arguing that IMPLUSE FIXCLY HIGH TARANCELS TO US DAIRY PRODUCTS and created barriers for American farmers.
In the relationship between the US and Mexico, the main problems are Trade, immigration and security. In 2019, President Trump He threatened to increase import tariffs of Mexican products, if Mexico did not control the immigration of Central America and from the south through the country to the US, which led in part to the creation of the T-MEC in 2020.
Similarly, the agreement is likely to be used once again as a lever to negotiate stricter immigration policies with Mexico and a greater focus on border security. For JP Morgan, what is different this is The declaration of “national emergency” on the border between the US and Mexico.
Deficit anatomy
In general, there is a consensus between economists in which Tariffs constitute a little use tool to reverse the commercial deficit of a countrysince these are caused by structural macroeconomic phenomena.
A commercial deficit reflects an excess internal demand that is not satisfied with the goods and services produced locally.
This excess can be caused by a fiscal deficit (A situation in which the government spends or consumes more than it collects) and/or for an imbalance between productive investment and internal savings, where there is an insufficiency of the latter.
In the presence of macroeconomic imbalances such as these, the imposition of tariffs towards one or more economies in particular It will only redistribute the balance of the commercial deficit among other countries.
In the case of the US, after the start of their commercial war with China in 2018, its commercial deficit with the Asian country was reduced, but Simultaneously its deficit with Mexico grew and, more rapidly, with other Asian countries Like South Korea, Vietnam and Taiwan.
Only with these three countries, Washington’s commercial imbalance added US $ 263,000 million, a figure in which Vietnam participates with almost half.
