The Congress of Chile is redoubled their plans to force everyone to vote in this year’s presidential elections, imposing a fine to those who do not. It is good news for the ultraconservative candidate José Antonio Kast.
Legislators will vote from next week to establish a fine of up to US $ 136 to any citizen or immigrant with a five -year residence or more who does not issue their suffrage. Since the Electoral Registry in Chile is now automatic, that makes the presidential race mandatory for all adults for the first time in the history of the country.
Surveys show that politically less committed disproportionate to Kast, consolidating the expectations that the first round will lead in November and then win the ballot in December. But there is a salvation: those same people are less loyal in their support, which means that any setback during the campaign could affect their adhesion and alter the electoral result.
“That additional electorate is not usually defined by ideology or by party loyalties, but decide late and depending on immediate problems: security, cost of living, access to basic services,” said Juan Pablo Lavín, executive director of the UDD Citizen Panel. “That is why the trends that surveys show today can be modified significantly in the final stretch, when this voter begins to get involved.”
Among those who say they would not vote – but this time they would be obliged to do so -, A citizen panel survey shows 27% support for Kastfollowed by 15% for the Centrodetha candidate Evelyn Matthei and 14% for the libertarian Johannes Kaiser.
The graph also suggests volatility, since support for Kaiser jumped 7% two weeks before. This beat Jeannette Jara, the candidate of the ruling coalition and populist Franco Parisi. For now, Kast is still the clear favorite among those new voters.
“The forced voter is a more critical person of the system, much less political and that values democracy less than the usual voter,” said Cristóbal Hneeus, Data Science Director of the UNHOLSTER analysis firm. “This should favor candidates who speak in that language or have proposals to make those people more sense.”
Surveys for general voting are currently showing Kast advancing to the second round in the presidential electionswhere the communist candidate Jeannette Jara would then defeat by a wide margin.
The forced “on the margin can be a bit more conservative, but first of all, they have little interest in politics and, I would say more, they hate politicians, so they are very anti-system and anti -incumbent”Said Loreto Cox, a professor at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile. “In the current context, that should harm Jeannette Jara.”
According to the survey, Jara – member of the Communist Party— It only attracts 13% of these new voters, in strong contrast with the 33% support they achieve among the most frequent voters.
With the return to democracy in 1990 after the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet, Chile implemented the mandatory vote for those registered, but the inscription remained optional. In 2012, the country went to a voluntary system, although with automatic record.
As the rules change, electoral participation will be reduced. In 2022, only 47.3% of the authorized voted in the presidential elections and barely rebounded 55.6% in the second round.
Then came the debate that same year on the rewriting of the 1980 Constitution. Given a change in the fundamental principles of the nation, the government reimposed the mandatory vote and maintained automatic registration for the two subsequent plebiscitos.
As a result, participation in the two referendums of 2022 and 2023 jumped around 85%. The votes also showed the belligerent character of the new voters, with an electorate who first rejected the constitutional reform promoted by the government and then the version backed by the right.
While Kast benefits from now on the mandatory vote, The “stranger” Parisi could also gain ground as the election approaches, Lavín said.
“Its potential multiplied considerably,” he said. “His emergence can affect Kast, because they compete for the same less ideologized voter, but overcoming an official candidate like Jara is much more complex. Parisi can be decisive in whom it happens, but it is still difficult for him to get into the second round. “
Kaiser or Parisi would have to exceed the solid support of between 25% and 30% that the ruling party has to advance to a ballot, something unlikely, Huneeus said. But there is another factor that favors Kast to stay in the race.
A significant percentage of the new incorporated into the register for these presidential elections are immigrants. Foreigners are automatically added to the electoral registry after five years of residence, and many of them are Venezuelans fleeing the repressive socialist regime of President Nicolás Maduro. According to surveys, these tend to favor right -wing candidates, particularly Kast.
The number of foreign residents enabled to vote in the next election represents almost 6% of the register. “Whoever manages to connect with that less politicized electorate, speaking of daily security, inflation or concrete problems, will have the key to capitalize on the new scenario,” said Lavín. “Redefine where competition is played for the majority.”
