Keir Starmer’s Labour Party was probably hoping for its first UK election victory in almost two decades allowed him to enjoy a political honeymoon at least during the summer. But in less than a month, the challenges of governing a fragile nation have quickly dissipated any remaining sense of euphoria.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves delivered the first reality check on Monday, warning that tax rises would be needed in the October budget to plug a £22,000 hole. billion pounds ($28 billion) he said he had found in the public finances. Some in Labour saw it as an accusation of betrayal, after a campaign promise not to inflict surprise tax rises on people reeling from a cost-of-living crisis.
The mood darkened again when riots led by far-right activists broke out in parts of England after false information was spread on social media. social media reports that the suspect in the fatal stabbings of three girls in north-west England was a Muslim asylum seeker. As authorities brace for more violence this weekendStarmer held a press conference on Thursday to outline a more forceful police response.
The turbulent week left some Labour MPs, who were jubilant at taking office, nervous about what might happen next. and how Starmer and Reeves would respond. The public disarray also highlighted what some Labour officials were worried about even as the party rejoiced in its landslide election victory: that growing unrest on the political right would cause trouble.
“Between the riots that have been seen in Southport and elsewhere and the suggestion that tax increases are just around the corner, “Keir Starmer is already facing his fair share of political problems,” said Scarlett Maguire, director of pollsters JL Partners. “Without a clear economic outcome, NHS and immigration, the widespread anti-political sentiment in the country could become even harder to correct.”
During the six-week election campaign, Starmer and Reeves made no secret of the economic and political chaos they expected to inherit. According to one ally, the prime minister did not want or expect a honeymoon, as he felt the “chaos” left behind by the Tories demanded immediate action. Another ally described Starmer as a realist rather than a romantic.
Reeves’ intervention was also part of a calculated move to demonstrate his seriousness and his willingness to make difficult and unpopular decisions, according to Labour Party advisers who spoke on condition of anonymity. Centre-centre voters, whom Labour targeted in the election campaign, want responsible government and not impossible promises, one adviser said.
The first rate cut by the Bank of England since early 2020, the most optimistic economic forecasts and The strong performance of British athletes at the Paris Olympics also gave the government reason to celebrate.
However, the reaction to Reeves’ speech has dampened the mood of some Labour MPs. She insists her complaints about the last Conservative government’s undeclared overspending are legitimate and is privately shocked by the actions of her predecessor, Jeremy Hunt. However, the questions she faced during her broadcast question-and-answer session on Tuesday focused less on whether there was a Conservative cover-up and more on whether she had been dishonest with voters over Labour’s tax plans.
Some lawmakers are also concerned about his decision to eliminate winter energy bill assistance for about 10 million retirees, to fund pay rises for junior doctors. One MP said that rather than targeting such a key demographic, its first revenue increase should have been aimed at the wealthy.
Labour Party advisers were alarmed to see journalists digging up comments previous statements from Starmer and Reeves suggesting they would not raise taxes or scrap winter payments for pensioners. One said the chancellor should have put forward a more elegant position on taxes during the campaign so she could not be accused of dishonesty later. An ally of Reeves said she had no real specific plans to raise taxes before taking office, and still expected any increases to be limited.
No doubt part of the reaction to Reeves’ speech is a result of Labour’s landslide victory and the geographical and economic breadth of the constituencies it now controls. An aide said the speech struck the right tone and was consistent with a strategy to expose problems left by the Conservatives, though he also expressed surprise at the number of policy changes announced at once.
There is debate among advisers about whether Reeves should communicate his strategy more clearly to avoid surprises. Some in Labour believe criticism of Reeves would have been more intense had the fallout from his speech not been swept from the front pages by the Southport killings and the far-right violence that followed.
At his press conference, Starmer accused “thugs” from outside the community of exploiting grieving families for political gain. Police, he said, would begin sharing information to “restrict their movements before they can get on a train, in the same way we do with football hooligans”.
More violence erupted at protests across the UK over the weekend, including in Sunderland, Liverpool and Hull, where several police officers were injured.On Saturday, Starmer held an emergency meeting with ministers to discuss the unrest, offered support to police and reiterated his commitment to prosecuting those responsible, according to a statement from the prime minister’s office.
The risk for Starmer and the Labour Party goes beyond scenes of burning police cars, rioters throwing bricks and the view spread in some areas of social media that the government has already lost control.
The Labour Party designed an election campaign strategy focused on centrist voters and it worked. But the Conservative implosion also left the right-wing Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage, in a strong position to make life difficult for Labour with a populist, anti-immigrant message that appeals to some voters, even in areas where some of the recent unrest has occurred.
Starmer’s reference to the “understandable fear” some people have of social tensions was a nod to that risk. Although different, some of Far-right activists have expressed support for Reform, and Farage posted a video on X where he repeated online conspiracy theories about the Southport murders.
There is growing concern within the Labour Party that some of the government’s early policies could favour Farage. A plan to release some prisoners early because of overcrowding — a situation Starmer has blamed on the Conservatives — has the potential to backfire in the current political climate, his advisers said. They are studying how this can be managed in a way that reduces the chances of violent reoffending.
While improving the economy was the key measure of Starmer’s government’s success, successfully handling crime and borders would be almost as important, one attendee said.
Starmer’s strategy of blaming the Conservatives for the unpleasant decisions he has to make will not change any time soon, and most in the Labour Party He agrees that it remains the right approach. But this week also showed that the problems are now the responsibility of the government and that the prime minister will ultimately be judged by the policy decisions he and Reeves make as well.
