On Monday, November 3, the economic team had to face the last deadline of 2025 with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for USD 825 million as interest. There are still doubts about the completion of the payment to the international organization.
As he commented to Infobae a source involved in the operation, The transfer would have been made by the BCRA without having received payment from the Treasury, which is who is in charge of the debt with the international organization. The same source stressed that the operation would be compensated later.
In turn, the latest daily report from the BCRA indicates that as of Friday, October 31, the Government’s deposits in national currency fell to $5.2 billion (product of the last tender where the roll-over was from 57%) while those in foreign currency increased to the equivalent of $132,675 million.
The situation arises due to the fragility of the Treasury after the interventions it carried out to control the dollar in the weeks prior to the midterm election. Since the Buenos Aires elections on September 7, the Treasury had sold a large part of the dollars it bought with the temporary measure of zero withholdings to the countryside – which has a fiscal cost -.
Between September 10 and the first week of October, the national Treasury lost USD USD 653 million. After that, he gave way to the United States Treasury to start buying pesos (selling dollars) and prevent the wholesaler from touching the ceiling of the exchange rate band.
But the BCRA is not comfortable on its balance sheet either. On Monday international reserves closed at USD 40,786 millionafter they fell to USD 39,382 million, like every end of the month due to the ordering of the lace.
Although a source from the economic team maintained Infobae that the payment made by the BCRA to the IMF would later be compensated by the Treasury, other market observers warned that a non-transferable bill should have been generated to account for the operation, which would also have to be communicated this week in the Official Gazette.
In response to the query of Infobae There was no response to sources from the Ministry of Economy regarding the details of the operation as of the closing of this note. Yesterday they only announced that the payment would be made like all the previous ones.
For his part, the director of the consulting firm Analytica, Claudio Caprarulohighlighted that between Thursday and Friday of last week the BCRA reserves fell USD 1.1 billion so the payment could have been advanced. The exact expiration date was Saturday, November 1, transferable to the next business day.
Last Thursday, October 30, the BCRA’s international reserves were at USD 40,495 millionon Friday, October 31, they went down to USD 39,382 million. A difference of USD 1,113 million. Although it coincides with all the ends of the month, the reduction occurs due to the ordering of the banks’ reserve requirements and on Monday they returned to USD 40,786 million.
The maturity of November 3 was the last of 2025. For 2026, Argentina has maturities with the IMF for USD 3,349 million as interest and USD 1,145 million in capital amortizations.
Payment commitments already appear in the first two months: in February, the Government must turn USD 840 million for interest, which will be repeated in May (USD 812 million), August (USD 851 million) and November (USD 846 million) for the same concept.
Only in September, you must make the first payment of the year for amortizations (USD 801 million) and then another in December for USD 343 million. To face them, the economic team’s plan is to access the international market, a possibility that became closer since Sunday, October 26.
The economic team’s plan is that by the time it faces the 2026 maturities, Argentina has access to international markets. And although the victory in the legislative elections allowed him to lower the country’s risk to the range of 600 basis points (bp)for analysts it should be around 400 bp.
If this does not happen, the economic team could activate a section of the swap with the United States for USD 20 billionwhich will pay a rate that is unknown as in China.
