The possibilities that the Brazilian Jair Bolsonaro supports Tarcisio de Freitas as a candidate in the presidential elections of next year are fadingaccording to his allies, which is a hard blow to the investors who see the governor of São Paulo as the ideal rival of the leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
Bolsonaro, who is prohibited from presenting himself to the October 2026 elections, seems to bow to finally support a member of his familyaccording to five people familiar with the situation, who requested anonymity so as not to tighten relations with the former right -wing.
Freitas, who was Minister of Infrastructure of Bolsonaro, has become the favorite of Brazilian business eliteseager to find an alternative to Lula, thanks to its technical approach and its market favorable. Rumors have intensified as you have worked to attract investors and try to strengthen support between the Bolsonaro base, although he denies that he is considering presenting himself.
But Freitas is aware that he needs the support of Bolsonaro to raise a serious challenge to Lula, according to people close to both the governor and the former president. With Bolsonaro focused on his own future, at a time when an attempted trial of coup d’etat threatens to send it to prison, Freitas seems to get farther from achieving it.
Neither Bolsonaro spokesman nor the Freitas office responded to comments requests. According to the electoral law, Freitas must resign from his current position before April 2026 to launch a presidential campaign, a period that has generated pressure on Bolsonaro to decide soon who he intends to support.
However, Bolsonaro has continued to affirm that he will present himself again despite his legal problems and electoral prohibition. Since the idea that it is a candidate is essential for accusations of political persecution of Bolsonaro, it is unlikely to abandon it in the near future, according to sources. The same people recognize that Bolsonaro is known for their unpredictability. A rapid conclusion of the coup d’etat, which is expected to take place at the end of this year, could change the political landscape again, according to one of them.
President Donald Trump’s decision to enter the contest has also altered Bolsonaro’s calculations. Tariffs on Brazilian products and US sanctions against the judge in charge of the case of coup attempt have increased the confidence of the former president in which he will manage to avoid jail and revoke the disqualification, according to his allies.
They have also put the Bolsonaro family in the spotlight, while placing Freitas in an uncomfortable position among the supporters of the conservative leader and the companies of São Paulo, who will be the most affected by the tariffs.
One of Bolsonaro’s children, legislator Eduardo Bolsonaro, was absent from the Brazilian Congress in March to move to the United States and has celebrated tariffs and sanctions as a result of their efforts to press the Trump administration. He has expressed interest in running for the presidency if his father cannot do it and has criticized Freitas for establishing conversations with US officials about tariffs.
“I do not agree with its approach, but life continues,” said Eduardo Bolsonaro in a written answer to questions this week.
Another of his children, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, has played an outstanding role in his father’s defense, appearing on rallies and arguing in frequent television interviews that the court is fighting a war against the Brazilian right. For her part, former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro has deep links with the evangelical communities of Brazil and has worked to expand her political scope for the 2026 electoral cycle.
“It seems that Bolsonaro is inclined to choose one of his children,” said Silvio Cascione, senior analyst of the Eurasia Group. “The radicalization climate, with the involvement of the United States, makes the witness more reluctant, although Tarcisio remains an option.”
Freitas was criticized for outstanding figures on the right after undergoing a small medical intervention instead of attending the demonstrations in favor of Bolsonaro on Sunday. In an attempt to show his support, Freitas visited Bolsonaro on Thursday, which is currently under house arrest, in Brasilia.
It is believed that Freitas is a winner almost certain of a second term as governor of São Paulowhich could push him towards the candidacy for re -election, in which he publicly insists that he is centered. That also attracts Bolsonaro more and more, who considers preferable to keep an ally at the head of the largest and rich state in Brazil, according to a person close to the family.
