During the day of the 2025 legislative elections, Infobae live carried out a real-time analysis of the development of the elections and the political climate that accompanied the debut of the Single Paper Ballot (BUP). The interventions of political analysts, economists and party leaders marked a complex reading of the scenario, with special focus on the low participationthe behavior of young voters and the possibility of a reconfiguration of Congress.
One of the starting points of the analysis was the participation figure: 66% of the electoral rolla number that set off alarms due to the high level of absenteeismwhich reached more than 12 million people. For the sociologist and anthropologist Pablo Semanthat data was central: “There is great absenteeism, it is the most important data for Argentine political life.” In his opinion, those under 35 years of age—and especially those under-20—entered “a new matrix of political sensitivity” that was not interpreted by traditional forces.
The observation was completed with the analyst’s gaze Lara Goyburuwho explained that 49.9% of the register is under 39 years old and that this demographic composition caused an increase in participation towards the afternoon. “In each of the surveys we do, a large gap is marked between age and gender,” he added, while mentioning a territorial fragmentation: “For some time now we have been seeing that there is an Argentina of Route 6 for the mountain range and another of Route 6 for the river.”
In that context, Carlos Maslaton He provided a reading from a technical and political point of view. He stated that his report showed a slightly higher level of participation, 69%, although he agreed that the system with the Single Ballot facilitates more blank and null votes. “The experience of Santa Fe shows that there are 5% white votes and 5% null votes,” he noted.
He also highlighted the speed of the process: “There was very fast circulation, everyone told me that when they got to their table there was no one, due to the speed of the system.” Regarding the general outlook, he said: “It gives the impression that it is a good day for the government.” According to their analysis, in provinces such as Córdoba and Santa Fe, Freedom Advances It would be first in individual terms, although the sum of other forces exceeds its numbers.
The economist also made reference to the recent evolution of the ruling party: “The Government has raised a lot in the last two weeks, the agreement with the US gave it a solidity that it did not have a month ago.” He compared the current performance with the scenario of two years ago and pointed out that, although the numbers are lower, the ruling party managed an unexpected bounce: “They fell, but they hit a rebound that was not expected.”
Regarding the international impact, he noted: “Anti-Yankeeism is not working, there is something that has changed. Before, if a Government was run by foreigners it would have been a catastrophe, now it seems that it has benefited it.” Finally, he suggested that the result could promote an economic turnaround: “I want to imagine that several officials think that it is not viable to maintain the exchange rate system of the last two years. Perhaps they take advantage of US help to make the real change that they could not do for electoral reasons.”
From the ruling party, Ivan Dubois He was satisfied with the performance at the national level: “Maybe not by a difference of 10 points, but being the first legislative election of LLA and taking into account that everything has been built politically and territorially in recent times, winning by one point is a lot.” He highlighted the weight of Congress in the immediate future and described a stage of alliances: “The political game leads you to close alliances, because the goal is to be in the Government and help the people.”
He also alluded to the link with the US government: “The US Executive is betting on the ideological plan that is governing Argentina today. The political commitment is very strong, in fact the political capital they are playing is stronger than the economic one.”
Regarding the social climate, Dubois described a scenario of distrust of institutional structures: “There is discontent at a generic level against institutional systems, at a global level.” He criticized the lack of renewal in the leadership: “The candidates began to get old, their ideologies became sterile and they did not generate new children or new candidates.”
From a more structural perspective, Semán added: “In Argentina, growth cycles have always alternated with recession cycles, but in the last 10 years the recessions were more serious and the growth cycles are chicken flights.” He also spoke of an “idea of trauma” that affects political life: “A mistrust was structured that today is inhabiting Argentine political life, the trauma is not going to go away on its own.”
With the elections closing and waiting for the first results, analysts agreed that the new composition of Congress will be decisive. Goyburu summarized it like this: “Faced with the certainty of the past, the uncertainty of the future is voted on.”
