The International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecasts on Tuesday for the United States, China and most countries, citing the impact of Washington tariffs, which are now at their highest level in 100 years, and warned that new commercial tensions would further decelerate growth.
The IMF published an update of its world economy compiled in just 10 days after President Donald Trump announced universal tariffs for almost all commercial partners and higher rates – currently suspended – for many countries.
Reduced its world growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points, to 2.8%, by 2025, and at 0.3 percentage points, to 3% in 2026from its January forecast that growth would reach 3.3% in both years.
In the case of Colombia, The IMF drops to the growth of 3% to 2.4% in the latest estimates of April.
He said he hopes that inflation decreases more slowly than expected in January, given the impact of tariffs, reaching 4.3% this year and 3.6% in 2026, with “notable” upward revisions for the United States and other advanced economies.
The IMF described the report as a “reference forecast” based on evolution until April 4citing the extreme complexity and fluidity of the current moment.
“We are entering a new era as the global economic system that has worked during the last 80 years is restored”The IMI chief economist, Pierre-Loivier Gourinchas told the press.
The IMF said that the rapid escalation of commercial tensions and “extremely high levels” In uncertainty about future policies would have a significant impact on world economic activity.
“It is quite significant and is affecting all regions of the world. We are observing less growth in the United States, in the euro zone, in China and other parts of the world,” Gourinchas declared Reuters in an interview.
“If there is an escalation of commercial tensions between the United States and other countries, it will generate additional uncertainty, it will generate greater volatility in financial markets and harden financial conditions,” he said, adding that the combined effect would further reduce the perspectives of global growth.
The weakest growth prospects had already reduced the demand for dollars, but the adjustment in the currency markets and the re -quilibrium of the portfolio observed to date had been ordered, he said.
“We are not seeing a stampede or a flight in a hurry,” Gourinchas said. “At this time we are not worried about the resilience of the international monetary system. Something much greater would be needed.”
However, medium -term growth prospects remain mediocre: the five -year forecast is maintained at 3.2%, below the historical average of 3.7% between 2000 and 2019, and no relief is glimpsed unless significant structural reforms are implemented.
The IMF cut its forecast for world trade in 1.5 percentage points to 1.7%, half of the growth seen in 2024, which reflects the accelerated fragmentation of the global economy.
US growth
The IMF reduced its growth forecast for the United States by 0.9 percentage points to 1.8% this year (a percentage point less than the growth of 2.8% in 2024) and at 0.4 percentage points to 1.7% in 2026, citing political uncertainty and commercial tensions.
Gourinchas told the press that the IMF does not forecast a recession in the United States, but that the probability of happening had increased from approximately 25% to 37%. He added that the IMF now estimates that general inflation in the United States reaches 3% in 2025, a percentage point rather than provided in January, due to tariffs and the underlying strength of the services sector.
That means that the Federal Reserve will have to be very alert to keep inflation expectations anchored, Gourinchas said, noting that many Americans were still affected by an increase in inflation during Covid pandemic.
When asked about the impact of any decision of the White House to dismiss the president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, Gourinchas said it is “absolutely critical” that central banks could remain independent to maintain their credibility when addressing inflation.
Canada and Mexico, residents of the United States and affected by various Trump tariffs, also saw their growth forecasts cut. The IMF predicted that the Canadian economy would grow 1.4% this year and 1.6% in 2026, instead of 2% projected for both years in January.
He predicted that Mexico would be strongly affected by tariffs and that its growth would fall to -0.3% in 2025, a collapse of 1.7 percentage points compared to the January forecast, before recovering at a growth of 1.4% in 2026.
The IMF predicted that the growth in the euro zone would slowerly be 0.8% this year and at the next one, with both forecasts approximately 0.2 percentage points below January. He pointed out that Spain was an atypical case, with a growth forecast of 2.5% by 2025, an upward review of 0.2 percentage points, which reflects solid data.
The IMF cut its growth forecast for Germany at 0.3 percentage points, up to 0.0%, this year, and at 0.2 percentage points, up to 0.9%, in 2026.
Great Britain would reach 1.1% in 2025, 0.5 percentage points below the January forecast, And it would rise slightly 1.4% in 2026, which reflects the impact of recent tariff ads, the greatest yields of the state bonds and a weaker private consumption.
The IMF expects commercial tensions and tariffs to reduce 0.5 percentage points of Japan’s economic activity in 2025, compared to the January forecast, for an expansion of 0.6%.
China’s growth forecast was reduced to 4% by 2025 and 2026which reflects downward reviews of 0.6 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively, compared to January.
Gourinchas said that the impact of tariffs on China -which depends greatly on exports – It was around 1.3 percentage points in 2025, but that was compensated by stronger fiscal measures.
