A fledgling opposition party in Hungary ousted Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power in a historic election that will redefine the country’s relationship with the European Union. Russia and the US administration of President Donald Trump.
Peter Magyar’s Tisza party was heading for a supermajority in parliament that would allow it to fulfill its ambitious promises to dismantle Orbán’s self-described illiberal system. According to the Budapest Electoral Office, on Sunday, with 67% of the votes counted, Tisza had 69% of the parliamentary seats, compared to 28% for Fidesz, Orbán’s party.
Orbán acknowledged his electoral defeat and declared to his followers that the result was “painful” for him. He added that he had congratulated Magyar on his victory. After the publication of the partial results, the forint extended its bullish streak against the euro, which had already lasted for several months.
Magyar, a 45-year-old former member of the ruling party, mobilized the country over the past two years with his message of change in the face of an increasingly authoritarian regime. As the results came in, drivers honked their horns in celebration along the Danube River in Budapest.
The result is a setback for Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who sought to keep the European Union’s longest-serving prime minister in power. Trump repeatedly endorsed Orbán and sent Vice President JD Vance to Budapest to campaign for him just days before the vote.
Putin had used the Hungarian leader to sow division in the EU, block aid to Ukraine and ease sanctions against Moscow. His dismissal will likely pave the way for the release of 90 billion euros ($106 billion) in aid that kyiv urgently needs to stay in the fight. after more than four years of large-scale Russian invasion.
“Hungary has chosen Europe,” declared European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on program X. “Europe has always chosen Hungary. “Together we are stronger.”
The result also represents a defeat for the nationalist sector in Europe, for which Orbán had been a pioneer and the driving force of his party, the Patriots, which is now the third largest party within the European Parliament.
But it is in Hungary—which was once a paradigmatic example of the transition from communism to market democracy—where Orbán is a highly relevant political figure. where the impact of Sunday’s elections will be felt most intensely.
Magyar took advantage of growing discontent over cronyism, the stagnation of the economy and the rapid deterioration of public services to challenge and, finally, break the tight control exercised by the head of government who had been in office for the longest time in the EU.
Orbán went from being a liberal, anti-communist student leader in the 1980s to becoming a centre-right conservative prime minister for the first time in 1998, at the age of 34. After losing power in 2002, he returned to office in 2010 as a pro-Kremlin nationalist with a mission to eradicate liberal democracy.
Magyar based his campaign on a promise to not only topple the populist icon of the Maga movement, but also to dismantle its system. Much of his momentum now depends on delivering on that promise, and doing so has become more feasible now that Tisza appears to have passed the 133-seat threshold, which would give him a two-thirds parliamentary majority.
But he will also inherit some of the economic problems that contributed to Orbán’s downfall and were further aggravated by the prime minister’s spending spree before the election. which included lifetime income tax exemptions for mothers and increases in pensions and salaries.
The government posted a deficit of 3.4 trillion forints ($10.6 billion) in the first quarter, a record so far this year. Hungary will have to take urgent measures to cut the budget and prevent its sovereign credit rating from being downgraded to junk bond status.
Magyar has stated that he will ask President Tamas Sulyok, an ally of Orbán, to shorten the 30-day deadline until the formation of the new parliament for a faster transition of power. He has expressed concern that the outgoing legislature, dominated by Orbán, could pass laws that hinder his administration.
The opposition leader has vowed to oust key Orbán loyalists, including the president, senior magistrates, the attorney general and the heads of several state regulatory bodies. He also plans to approve a new constitution, modify electoral rules, considered by many to be favorable to Fidesz, and suspend news coverage by public media, which Orbán had turned into a mere mouthpiece for the government, until balanced political coverage is reestablished.
These changes are necessary for Hungary to reintegrate into the European mainstream and to free its political and economic sphere from the influence of Fidesz, Magyar declared Sunday after casting his vote.
A two-thirds majority will also help the Hungarian government pass key legislation to unlock some of the more than $20 billion in EU funds that had been withheld from Orbán’s government over concerns about rule of law and corruption. and that a budget in financial difficulties urgently needs. These measures include the adoption of anti-corruption laws, cooperation with the EU Prosecutor General’s Office and the restoration of press and academic freedoms.
Magyar has pledged to impose a two-term limit on prime ministers to prevent Hungary from returning to authoritarian rule. He has stated that this would disqualify Orbán, who has served four consecutive terms and five in total, to run for the position of prime minister in the future.
The prospect of detente with the EU – and the possibility of a Hungarian government eventually adopting the euro – something that Orbán has strongly opposed—has driven a rise in the currency and bonds in Hungary months before the elections. The florin strengthened to almost its three-year high in the days before the elections.
Since 2010, Orbán himself had used a supposed supermajority to approve a new constitution and electoral rules without the support of the opposition, and to extend its influence to all areas of life, from the courts to the boardrooms to the classrooms.
In the process, the prime minister had harshly criticized minorities, particularly the LGBTQ+ community and immigrants, and had attacked journalists and independent civil society, in what many considered tactics from the Kremlin playbook.
Magyar, who describes himself as a center-right conservative, united liberals and disaffected Fidesz voters, like himself, under the Tisza umbrella. It focused on addressing the economic concerns of Hungarians, including the cost of living crisis, education and healthcare.
He has also pledged to hold senior officials accountable for what has been seen as misappropriation of state assets, which has led to the creation of a new class of politically connected billionaires, including family and friends of Orbán. Hungary has fallen to last place in the EU in Transparency International’s corruption ranking.
For the EU, the impending change in Hungary could not have come at a better time. Orbán had portrayed Hungary as a puppet of the bloc and had opposed aid to Ukraine, which he vetoed last month. He has also described Ukraine as an enemy, replicating the strategy of Russia, which invaded the neighboring country of Hungary in 2022.
Hungary has committed to improving relations with the EU and key members such as Germany and Poland, while softening ties with Russia, even reviewing the controversial expansion of the Paks nuclear power plant by the Orbán government, in a project led by the Russian company Rosatom Corp.
At the same time, Magyar has presented a very extensive timetable, extending into the next decade, to reduce the country’s dependence on Russian oil and gas, despite the EU’s plan to soon cut energy dependence on Moscow.
