The financial market experienced one of its most relevant weeks in decades after the election results. The country’s main stock index, the Mervalregistered a historic rise in dollars in October and the country risk index fell abruptly. The scenario reconfigured the outlook for local assets in a context of reinforced political continuity and expectations of definitions in economic policy.
The jump in share prices was an unprecedented milestone. He S&P Merval measured in dollars, it rose 73.3% in October, the largest monthly advance since 1992, according to data from GMA Capital. On Friday, October 31, the index closed at 1,993 points, after gaining 6.4% in the round. In pesos, the monthly increase reached 69.3 percent.
Despite this strong rebound, the Merval remained 6.6% below the dollar level recorded at the end of 2024 and has not yet recovered those losses during the year. For its part, in local currency the index has added 18.5 percent so far in 2025.
Despite this strong rebound, the Merval remained 6.6% below the level in dollars registered at the end of 2024 and during the year it has not yet recovered those losses
According to the report of GMA Capitalthe market reaction positioned October 2025 as the month with the highest monthly return in dollars since 1992, surpassing September 2023 and April 1999. This performance placed Argentine equities at a return level that had no precedent in recent decades.
The consulting firm identified that bonds also experienced movements of similar magnitude and that the yield gap against other emerging markets still encourages investor bets on local assets.
The initial rebound spread to the rest of the assets. He country risk index of Argentina fell 411 basis points during the election week, which meant a cut of 38%. The previous Friday it was around 1,080 basis points. After the first rounds, the collapse led the indicator to break through 700 points for the first time since the beginning of the year and closed the month at 657 units. At this level, he approached nine month flat.
The variation of the main Argentine ADRs reflected the intensity of the stock market reaction. Supervielle led the weekly increases with an increase of 87.21%, followed by Grupo Galicia and Edenor, with increases of 70.52% and 70.41% respectively. Other stocks with notable advances were Central Puerto, Banco Francés and Banco Macro, which surpassed marks of 60%. The Merval index in dollars consolidated a weekly increase of 51.56 percent.
The journey of the leading stocks in the last round and so far this year defined winners and laggards in the local market. On Friday, SUPV advanced 12.5%, Galicia rose 10.4%, Central Puerto gained 10.1% and VALO 10.2%. During October, SUPV accumulated a rise of 148.2%, one of the highest of the month. In the accumulated year, despite the rebound, there are still companies that reported negative performance, such as Comercial del Plata, BYMA and Ternium, along with others with moderate increases.
There is still a way for bonds in relation to other emerging markets (Repetto)
The impact and prospects for Argentine assets were the focus of analysis among specialists and consulting firms. Pablo Repettofrom Aurum Valores, analyzed that the stock market reached similar or even higher levels at the beginning of the year, although it expects less favorable business balances in the next reports, especially for banks.
Repetto said: “There is still a way for bonds in relation to other emerging markets” and highlighted the key role of the US support and the electoral result to facilitate greater access to international credit.
The market analyst evaluated that the signals of modification of the monetary and exchange rate scheme can reduce volatility and allow a more consistent recovery of activity, although he warned about the possibility of months with higher inflation.
The consulting firm 1816 highlighted that the political victory changed the climate drastically. The Monday after the elections, the Merval in dollars achieved the largest daily increase in three decades. In line with previous historical episodes, assets responded to the triumph of pro-market forces.
The report maintained that to regain access to the markets, it will be key for the monetary scheme to be predictable and allow reserves to be accumulated, although it observed tension between exchange bands and official foreign currency purchases.
The 1816 report projected: “Argentina’s return to international financing will depend on the country risk index continuing its downward path and breaking the floor reached in January (570 basis points).” He also noted that the rise in GD35 bonds exceeded 20% in the first days and raised the possibility of gains of 15% in dollars in six months if the yield falls to 9 percent.
Argentina’s return to international financing will depend on the country risk index continuing its downward path and breaking the floor reached in January -570 bp- (Consultora 1816)
The entity raised the convenience of rotating portfolios towards Bonares, which are quoted with high spreads compared to the Globals. In addition, he predicted a normalization of monetary policy and the need to accumulate reserves faster to match other comparable markets.
Nery Persichinidirector of GMA Capital, observed: “The distance that persists compared to other international issuers was accentuated. Argentina’s Global bond curve shows a yield of 10.5% annually, when Egypt, Nigeria and El Salvador are close to 8 percent.”
The consulting firm identified that the difference in rates stimulates the arrival of flows that seek to take advantage of normalization. The report stressed that the future performance of the bonds will depend on the continuity of confidence, new political support, support from the United States and a transparent monetary scheme.
GMA Capital estimates showed that Global bonds In the longer term they could rise between an additional 15% and 20% under a favorable scenario, while the shorter ones offer the return of more than 50% of the investment during the current presidential term.
The report also highlighted the signs of the real economy, which showed, even in a challenging context, an investment execution of 7,929 million dollars in September.
Greater political predictability and exchange rate calm can act as catalysts for new long-term investments (OJF)
According to OJF y Asociados, monthly gross domestic investment grew 11.3% year-on-year, driven by purchases of imported machinery and equipment, although national machinery and construction began to show signs of exhaustion. The report warned that greater political predictability and exchange rate calm can act as catalysts for new long-term investments.
GMA Capital emphasized that the official agenda aims to achieve a leap in productivity that reduces relative costs, betting on reforms to generate a virtuous circle of business and private investment.
The analysis of Damian Vlassichhead of Investment Strategies, described the weekly movement in the Merval as “unique and historic”, with a rise of 52% in dollars that has no precedent in statistics since 1990. The specialist maintained that, although the market remains in negative territory for the year, the compression of the country risk index and the drop in interest rates could drive a new upward journey, with a horizon at the levels of January (when the index approached 2,400 dollars adjusted for inflation).
Vlassih considered that the valuations of Oil & Gas, such as YPF and Pampa Energía, returned to historical averages measured by multiples of enterprise value over Ebitda and estimated that they can continue to grow if the increases in income derived from the development in Vaca Muerta continue.
Vlassich’s view on banks is that, although they maintain prospects for improvement, they face challenges due to balance sheets that are less robust than those of previous years. The return on equity barely exceeds double digits, in contrast to peaks of almost 40% in 2023, and the ratio of credit to GDP remained around 10%, one of the lowest levels in the region.
Regarding the sustainability of the rebound, Vlassich suggested caution: “Already at these price levels, it seems that it is up to politics and the economy to understand what path is going to be taken and if that actually ends up being the most positive for the markets and, ultimately, for Argentina’s growth from now on.”
Already at these price levels, it seems that it is up to politics and the economy to understand what path is going to be taken and if that actually ends up being the most positive for the markets (Vlassich)
The specialist cited the importance of support from the United States and the availability of financial support of up to USD 20 billion as differentiating factors of the present compared to previous episodes, although he warned that uncertainty persists regarding the pending structural definitions.
Several consulting firms agreed that the future path of the assets will depend on factors such as:
- the recomposition of reserves in the BCRA,
- the evolution of the exchange rate; and
- the dynamics of interest rates.
The emerging positive vision in the market found foundation in the stock market response and the decline in country risk, although questions persist about the limits of this optimism and the deadlines for macroeconomic normalization.
