President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro are tied ahead of Brazil’s presidential election in October, according to a new poll showing the race is tied for the first time.
Flavio, a right-wing senator and eldest son of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro, would receive 46.3% of the votes compared to Lula’s 46.2% in a face-to-face scenario, according to the survey conducted by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News and published on Wednesday.
Flavio has closed the gap of 12 points with Lula since December, when he lost by 53% to 41% after launching his candidacy with the support of his father. who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup attempt following his narrow defeat in the 2022 presidential election. In January, Lula led by 49% to 45%.
Lula suffered political criticism after attending a Carnival parade in Rio de Janeiro, where an elaborate tribute to his life and political career was held. The performance provoked outrage from his opponents after the representation of a conservative family, which gave rise to accusations of insulting religious Brazilians.
The president’s attendance also sparked complaints from opponents that the tribute amounted to inappropriate campaigning before the official start of Brazil’s electoral period.
Poll shows Brazilians are also divided over which candidate would do better on key issuesfindings that represent warning signs for both.
Lula has prioritized economic issues, including new income tax exemptions for workers with monthly salaries of up to 5,000 reais (US$970). and a plan to reduce weekly work hours. However, he has no advantage over Flavio in who would best run Latin America’s largest economy.
Flavio, on the other hand, has called for stronger responses to public safety, as crime has become a central problem for voters. However, the survey also found them practically even in that regard.
If other possible contenders are included, Lula leads Flavio by 45% to 40% in a first round, well ahead of the governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema, and Ratinho Jr. of Paraná, who obtained approximately 4% each. Ronaldo Caiado, another governor considering running, received about 5% of the votes in a first round in which he was included.
AtlasIntel interviewed 4,986 Brazilians between February 19 and 24. The survey has a margin of error of 1 percentage point.
