Three weeks after US President Donald Trump effectively declared a commercial war with everyonenew forecasts and economic surveys will point to the initial consequences.
A few blocks from the White House, the International Monetary Fund prepares to reduce its economic growth prospects in new projections published on Tuesday.
The next day, purchasing managers in Japan, Europe and the United States will offer the first coordinated vision of manufacturing activity and services since Trump’s global tariffs were implemented (now partially suspended) on April 2. Business surveys of the main economies are also on the calendar.
The combined panorama will offer finance ministers and the central bankers gathered in Washington The opportunity to perform initial assessments of Trump’s attempt to reconfigure the global trade system.
“Our new growth projections will include significant reductions, but not a recession,” the IMF managing director, Kristalina Georgieva said Thursday. “We will also see increases in inflation forecasts for some countries. We warn that the prolonged uncertainty increases the risk of tension in financial markets.”
IMF projections tend to be optimistic during potentially disruptive crisis. In the four great crises we study, The initial IMF evaluation on the immediate impact on world growth underestimated it at 0.5 percentage points. As much as the IMF can reduce growth forecasts at the beginning, history suggests that the final blow will be worse.
It is unlikely that clouds that overshadow the world economy dissipate for a while. The president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, declared Wednesday that the American Central Bank is “well positioned to expect greater clarity” Before considering changes in monetary policy, while the president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, could not confirm whether uncertainty has reached its maximum point.
On the other hand, among the most prominent themes are the decisions of the central banks of Russia and Indonesia, a key indicator of the wages in the Eurozone and the Beige book of the Federal Reserve.
United States and Canada
In the US, investors will be attentive to any additional deterioration in consumer confidence and inflation expectations when the University of Michigan publishes the April recruited data on Friday. Tariffs, and the risk they represent for both the economy and inflation, have been present in the minds of respondents in recent months.
Further north, the Canadian electoral campaign enters its last week, with the surveys suggesting that the liberals of Prime Minister Mark Carney have about five points of advantage, which places them within reach of a majority government in the middle of a commercial warfare volatile with the United States.
A key architect of Canada’s response to US tariff. February retail data and a preliminary estimate of March will reveal whether Canadian consumers reduced their expense for the third consecutive month amid commercial uncertainty.
Asia
In Asia, the week begins with the announcement of China’s preferential rates on Monday; Economists foresee a stable result. Recent data showed growth that exceeded forecasts.
Also on Monday, Indonesia will publish commercial data in March, which will provide an indicator of the health of the country’s external sector before Trump tariffs, while the Philippines are likely to register another surplus of balance of payments for March.
On Tuesday, New Zealand will publish the commercial figures of March, while Taiwan and Hong Kong will report employment data.
The next day, it is likely that the Central Bank of Indonesia will hold the rates for the third consecutive meeting in an effort to support the rupee, one of the Asian coins with worse performance this year.
The same day, the preliminary data of the April PMI for Australia, Japan and India will provide an early vision of the impact that the commercial war led by the United States will have in the manufacturing and service sectors.
Malaysia and Singapore will publish their inflation readings on Wednesday, and the consumer confidence data of South Korea will also be published, A day before the country publishes early estimates of the Gross Domestic Product of the first quarter.
On Friday, Japan will reveal the Tokyo CPI, as well as the sales of the department stores, while Singapore will know the prices of the private homes of the first quarter and the industrial production of March.
Europe, Middle East, Africa
With festive Monday in most Europe and the central bankers gathered for IMF meetings, most of the attention will focus on the United States. Numerous political leaders are on the agenda, including a speech by the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey on Wednesday.
In the Eurozone, the attention will focus mainly on the survey reports. Consumer confidence in the region is published on Tuesday, and the ECB publishes its survey to professional analysts on the same day. Its salary monitoring report, which will be published on Wednesday, points to a slowdown in salary growth, according to Lagarde last week after cutting interest rates.
Investors will probably also pay more attention to the PMIs that will be published on that date, since they offer a first vision of the activity in the manufacturing and services sector since the avalanche of US tariffs intensified in early April.
On Thursday, the IFO survey on German business confidence is published, very followed by analysts, which shows how business confidence has reacted to commercial tensions and, in a more positive tone, to the agreement on a federal coalition government. On Friday, similar indices will be published in France.
The United Kingdom PMI reports will also be published on Wednesday, as well as the latest public finance figures in March. Retail sales data are published on Friday.
The Swiss National Bank will publish its results of the first quarter and the next day its president, Martin Schlegel, will go to the annual general meeting.
Finally, the Russian Central Bank will announce its last monetary decision on Friday. The recent reduction in pressure on consumer prices is probably not enough to convince authorities to reduce the reference interest rate from a record of 21 %. However, the authorities could adopt a moderate position before a possible type cutting at the end of this year.
Latin America
After having obtained an agreement of US $ 20,000 million with the IMF, which includes an initial payment of US $ 12,000 million, Argentina will publish on Tuesday its FEBRUARY GDP data.
After contracting for the second year in 2024, the second largest economy in South America is experiencing a V -shaped recovery and is forecast to lead the growth between the great economies of the region this year and next.
Colombia will publish the economic activity data of February after the January GDP approach report exceeded consensus estimates, which led some analysts to increase their growth forecasts by 2025.
The Central Bank of Paraguay could be forced to adjust its monetary policy from the current level of 6%, with inflation that increases 100 basic points in four months, to 4.4%.
Brazil will publish on Friday the inflation data of the middle of April and, if March serves as a guide, the main fact should be even more above the upper limit of the target range of the Central Bank.
Mexico offers economic activity reports and consumer prices for the middle of the month.
The January negative figure in terms of GDP places Mexico’s economy on the way to a second consecutive quarterly contraction, complying with the definition of a technical recession.
Inflation could be kept close to the previous level of 3.93%, just below the maximum inflation target of the Central Bank. The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) will meet in mid -May to consider its reference rate, currently 9%.
