Democrats began a government shutdown with the goal of renewing tax credits to avoid increases in insurance premiums and demonstrate to voters that they have the determination to face tough negotiations in President Donald Trump’s Washington.
As the record shutdown draws to a close more than a month later, they haven’t achieved any of those goals.
A group of eight Democratic senators on Sunday broke with the rest of their party — including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer — to vote alongside Republicans and advance a bill to reopen the government on day 40 of the impasse.
The proposal does not include the expansion of Affordable Care Act subsidies that Democrats had become a lynchpin of their fight. They did, however, get a promise of a separate vote on the tax credits in the coming weeks, although prospects for success are uncertain.
The deal is likely to raise tensions within a party that days earlier was celebrating victories in local elections, where voters responded to its message of affordability. “I think it’s a terrible mistake,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. “The American people want us to fight for health, and that’s what we should do.” House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries also criticized the plan to reopen the government, saying Democrats in his chamber would not support it.
Some Democratic senators said those victories reinforced their resolve to stay in the fight, even as the consequences of the shutdown worsened. But quick moves by other members to close the deal showed Republican dominance in Washington. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, who helped negotiate the deal, said it became clear that Republicans would never consider subsidies as long as the government remained shut down and that waiting any longer would only “prolong the pain Americans feel.”
The origin of this dispute dates back to the backlash against Schumer in the spring, after supporting a Republican spending bill during the Elon Musk-led purge of federal employees. through its Department of Government Efficiency. Schumer then argued that it was preferable to keep the government open rather than give Musk a chance for more cuts. But the Democratic base was clear: they wanted their party to put up a fight.
Health care plan
Sunday’s deal demonstrates how difficult it is for Democrats to use their limited influence in Republican-controlled Washington to stop Trump’s agenda. The promise of a future vote on health tax credits was an offer from Senate Republican leader John Thune made weeks ago. Trump and Republican lawmakers insisted they would not negotiate on health care until the shutdown ended.
“It wasn’t going to happen,” said Sen. Angus King, an independent from Maine who aligns with Democrats. He added that it took “almost seven weeks of fruitless attempts” to include the Obamacare credits in the spending bill.
There are some positives for Democrats: Polls showed the public blamed Republicans more than them for the gridlock. The dispute led the Trump administration into a politically risky argument by pressuring states to withhold food aid to 42 million low-income Americans.
And the central issue of their fight — renewing tax credits for Obamacare health coverage — remains popular, with 24 million Americans facing premium increases that could mean paying hundreds of dollars more a month for their insurance.
campaign issue
Democrats will use the next one they negotiated to launch a midterm campaign focused on health, one of their strongest vote issues heading into the 2026 elections.. If Republicans block the extension of the credits in the Senate or refuse to debate it in the House, Democrats will argue that they are responsible for the premiums that will skyrocket at the beginning of next year.
Republicans now face pressure to propose a solution to rising medical premiums under their administration. And while the party was united in not negotiating on health care while the government remained shut down, it is deeply divided on how to address the issue. Some seek to extend subsidies with modest changes, while others seek to completely overhaul the Affordable Care Act.
Failure on this issue can have a political cost. The backlash against Republican attempts to repeal the law helped Democrats win back the House in 2018, during Trump’s first term.
Historically, the party that attempts to use a government shutdown to achieve a political victory usually fails, and this case was no exception. The Democrats’ results reflect those of Trump himself in his first term, when he kept the government closed for 35 days in search of more funds for the border wall with Mexico, without obtaining greater results.
The final days of the shutdown also evoked the end of the 2018-19 one: Negotiations turned serious as air travel reached a critical point. The Secretary of Transportation, Sean Duffy, ordered the cancellation of flights due to the lack of air traffic controllers, who stopped assisting after weeks without pay. More than 10,000 flights were delayed or canceled on Sunday due to lockdown chaos and bad weather, causing bottlenecks at key airports. Duffy warned that travel could grind to a halt just as millions of Americans were preparing for Thanksgiving.
The closure is not over yet. The Senate must vote on the final measure and the House — which Republican leaders have kept out of Washington since late September — must return to approve it without changes. Then Trump must sign it. The entire process could be delayed for several days, and in the meantime the effects of the closure will persist: travel interruptions, delays in food aid and unpaid wages to federal employees.
